Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Eur/Usd...................

Time/Price has established the 1st Apex Run at 1.2350...Current Price at 1.2050...with South Base now retreating from the 1.2050/80 to a containment Zone at the 61.8Fib> 1.1950/75 of the 1.1373<>1.2927 North Range...were North Entries will be Positioning for a 2nd Run for the 1.2350<>1.2450 basis as the Corrective North move is begining to develop its decent South for the 1.16<>1.1550 basis as a 1st South Translation decline.

Time/Price has gyrated in the 61.8<>50Fibs of the Bull North 1.1373<>1.2927 move...with the 61.8Fib Lows established at 1.1950/75 basis...Looking for a move back to the 50Fib at 1.2150 for a North continuation to the 1.2250<>1.23 basis...establishing the 2nd North Corrective run for the 1.2350/1.24 basis...with the 2nd North Apex capitulating into a Quick Reversal South with a decisive break thru 1.1950 for a test/break of the Lows at 1.1750 level.

Iris

[currencia]

Despite the majority of opines that euro is northbound, euro is still stuck in congestion despite todays move to 1.22 and quick retreat in full measure.

The tripping of support at 1.2050 should trigger a precipitious southbound move. Price should then bounce at 1.1950 before deciding if it wants to crash through that as well.

Price is curently 1.2080.

This is not a trade rec, but merely a contrarian observation.

[James]

Yes very "disappointing" and "frustrating" indeed

However, I am not sure that the majority opinion actually is bullish on the euro.

I am hearing a lot of talk about 1.10 - 1.05 around and about. If anything, I think the crowd is slowly turning their eyes southbound.

By the way, great analysis, Iris. Your grasp of market price and timing is excellent and you have proved to everyone that your understanding of this market is far deeper than that of the "MVA crowd" as Currencia puts it. Well done.

[James]

Ok here's another look at the euro using the Fischer tools. As you will see from these curves, the support level at 1.1950 is indeed important. A drop through here will violate numerous phi spirals, several phi ellipses and also some fibonacci support levels.

Also note that we are close to a bunch of time-goals clustered around the next few days. In summary, time and price are coming to a climax, and the next move will be important.

We agree on this, but not the direction. If I am wrong about the the euro heading north, i will soon know though. Below 1.1950 and I start looking firmly south. Until then, my bias is north.

[Iris]

Thank You James for your Kind and Sincere words...the Theory of Curvo-Linear Circular Time/Price is based on Higher Degree calculation/projection to Real Time...thru the Fractal Symmetry of the Phi/Fibonacci structure...an endless Geometric projection... engineered by Majority Net Positions Long/Short in the Market...My Friend Currencia raised an informative point on ellipses about 4-6 weeks back and I think his broader perspective was not seen in the light it was meant to convey...and/or grasped.....

Could U have drawn an elipse around two waves and therefore expect it to head south forthwith, when in fact U might be needing to draw an elipse that will incorporate three waves before price breaks to the south out of the elipse.? Soon we shall have the answer.

Curvo-Linear Circular Time/Price is a Research Tool that has valid merits if understood in its empirical structure...a tool/calculation for determining Net Majority Positioning...thus Directional Price Discovery/Movement...advanced in conceptions dependent
upon Degrees of Time upon Price.

Currencia and James Your contributions to this Community...as Well as our Friend Rezo and many to numerous to mention... expresses and conveys a thousand words to those that are seeking an answer to a particular query on Strategy...Oustanding Discourse on Ideas and Strategy...due to the Fact that many Members who read them will benefit and get another piece of this puzzle we call FX.

A Picture says a Thousand Words...a generic visual of Time/Price that our Friend Currencia tried to convey on the importance of correct vector configuration of the Higher Degree in the light of current Time/Price if i may use your Chart.......an Illustration.

Iris

[James]

Its sometimes difficult to determine the higher and lower degree pictures. This next analysis shows a higher degree north-bound ellipse and lower degree descending ellipses. Which one to choose?

Whichever picture determines the outcome, we still see that price is running out of time and we are in the apex of the intersection of the different degrees of price action. Something now must give way...higher degree north or lower degree south?

Also the horizontal Fibonacci price lines determine the breakout range...again higher degree support at 1.1800~1.1600 and lower degree resistance at 1.2350~1.2450.

The first tradable move will be obvious for the students of phi and other curvo linear methods, whereas the crowd will wait several hundred pips for the Fibos and MVA's to break.

Interestingly conformation to the higher degree north ellipse will require an accelaration of the north train, whereas the lower degree south allipses require only a continued slow train south.

[Habib]

by the TA stalwarts here, but in my opinion, charts are useless as anyone can see the pattern that he/she wants to see in them. At best they are a record of the past, and history is not necessarily going to repeat itself. Also past performance is no guarantee for future. You may draw lines, triangle, arcs, circles, polygons, whatever just to come up with some pattern to support your bias.
These are nice tools, however, to convince others of what you think is right.
You got to develop an overall view based on fundamentals and then give or take a few hundred pips to allow for manipulation by the big shots to try to shake you loose.
TA however does help in the form of previously known major support and resistance levels to take your chance on for deciding on your entry and exit levels. That is all.
This should, however, not be taken as if I am professing rigidity. Far from it, one must remain flexible to accomodate changing economic factors on both sides and their weightage. What may make or break you is the ability (or lack of it) to assign proper weight to any breaking news that comes along.

[HNN]

I totally agree with you Habib. I learned it the hard way. One should use technicals just for the best expected entry and then go through the fundamentals to understand the market expectations (Well one cannot understand fundies completely and cannot be sure that some event will not change it). Make up your opinion and enter. And last but not the least keep your SL way too away from manipulations. At least couple of hunderd pips away to avoid stop hunting even if you are looking for only a few pips. That is the chance you will have to take. You can avoid a big loss by using a good MM technique. Just my 2 cents.


Happy trading.