Sell Eur/Usd

[James]

Originally posted by James
I have voted for the low road, calling for a drop in the USDX to 87.00 - 87.50, followed by a rise to 88.50 then a dramatic collapse back to the Feb lows of 84.50 before lower. I have just bought cable and euro with this in mind.

Good luck!

Well, 7 minutes after I posted that, they both rallied 70 pips from the lows where I bought. Let's have a look a the chart I posted above in a few days/weeks time and see which road is followed. From here it looks like the low road just got started!

[gregh285]

until the daily trendine has been broken at 11960 it is the low road for US$ index, this has been a long period of consolidation for the Euro so the set direction could be a powerful thrust.

Long term changes have to be made as the Trade defecit is beginning to cripple the economy.
Asian inflows cannot support the US economy forever.

[Iris]

James.............

Pre NFP Data............Back to the Future...again.

The 1.2387<>1.1986 Range is in play...the 50Fib is at 1.2185 and the 618 at 1.2233...Good South Entry Zone upto the 618....then see South initialy to 1.2080<>1.2050 on thru 1.20

Dovish news on inflation and a possible hold on a FED hike has the above Range still in Play...tho US Economic expansion is still robust...putting the USD Bears back to Pre NFP Time/Price levels ie>1.2185<>1.2220...gee that 1.2220 sounds familar.
A break of the 618Fib at 1.2233 is 1st North Signal...with the 50Fib>1.2185 currently holding a North containment...the intriguing aspect is USD's Position as it relates to current/future FED Policy in view of a tightening Bias on Rates...with US Economic Fundamnetals expanding into continued growth...and the FED's measured approach to Inflation/Hikes...Greenspan set a corrective notation for USD today...

The dollar is at the top of its range right now, and is printing a triple top near the 90.00 level. Admittedly, we have an ascending triangle in the making too, which argues for a higher probability of a break higher...BUT the risk for long dollar positions is much higher - where to place stops and what about a false break?

The Dollar duality Sentiment is still in effect...thus a break of the demarcation lines at 90<>88 hold the answer...USD is reaching a point of singularity with the Range envelope imploding. The Best Research is in Pre-Positioning...which is were we are currently at...early Directional Bias...based on the Squaring of Time/Price.

US Dollar Index currently 88.90...
90 basis break ...North
89 Squaring of Time/Price
88 basis break ...South

Along with the Majors Bias to Greenspan's testimony...interesting days ahead... Looking for a retest of the 1.1760 basis.

Time will Tell my Friend...Great Call Today.

[psperos]

iris i am with you on this . Only time will tell. I trade whatever happens but i do have a small bias which is 1.08 on the euro... that's obviously not a short term target, but the movemt will start soon if we break down from this consilidation. Up cancels my idea.

Maybe we are in for a shock tomorrow with the trade data?

[psperos]

2nd chart

[James]

Good thinking Psperos...quite possible. Interestingly, this is the longest/tightest period of consolidation in the euro's short life. It will possibly spark the biggest move yet. But which way???

[psperos]

I calculated that whatever move it is going to be, it will be around 1500 pips. Got that from 1.2938 - 1.1380 . The direction? No clue yet ! My guess is down, but i would not put my money on it now.

[Speculator]

EUR just seem to never give up. Second (successful up till now) attempt to keep price within the red curve is underway.
EUR should really show muscles if it is to avoid being pushed out of the red curve by Time and eventually tumble down(lets say ~80% chance if outside).
Also notice the crossing point(s) (marked on chart). Quite possible to see some good action there.

Just my 2 cents and some twisted ideas…