Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Hello Everyone.........

the 3/5/07 post# 4760.......

We are in Euro Sell Z early yesterday New York Session 2/27 Positioning inside the Range @ 1.3240<>1.3180....for a Major South Reversal.

Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3235<>1.3230
Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3215<>1.3205
Euro Sell Zone @ 1.3200<>1.3180

Targeting @ 1.3150<>1.3130<>1.3100<>1.3080

The Euro has been Ranging a Top as a ECB March hike to 3.75% is Priced in...for weeks now.

EuroZone data has softened of late for inflation expectations as one of the FED's favorite core inflation measure's showed an expansion... more importantly a grasp by the FED for accurately assessing the inflationary outlook going forward into 2nd QTR 07...
Euro Sell Z above still the Optimal South Entry points as we are still Positioned 1.3235 into 1.3185 Z waiting...

We have had the Treasury TICS data exping almost double expectations $45ML to $74.6ML as the US Trade deficit was lower easily covered by Foreign Flows vs Trade deficit by 5x the ratio...US PPI has exped to 1.3% expectations @ 0.4% with US Un-Employement lower...the Market has seen that the FED's assessment on a tighter inflationary environment is on the money should further cement the FED's hawkish tone vis a vie the USDollar...Euro Sell Z above @ 1.3235<>1.3225<>1.3215<>1.3200 are Optimal Sell levels once again as the US Inflation outlook tightens moving outside of Energy related sectors entering the broader US Economy.

With a Fully Priced in ECB 3.75% @ 1.3265/50... the EruoZone core inflation yet to come which may be downgraded to 1.8<>1.9%.

Inflation is what the Market is Keying into... the Philly Fed @ 12:00noon.

IRIS FX
iris-fx.blogspot.com

[Faust]

Hello everyone. Any views on GBP/USD? Thank you

[Phillip]

GBP is in BULLISH MODE......but i would'n touch until that 9370-80 lvl is broken permanently.

Currently long EUR @ 3183........book prfts @ 3260 or even higher than that....

[FXInvestor]

US - Philadelphia Fed.
Forecast: 4.0 Previous: 0.6 GMT Time: 16:00

few minutes to go can some elaborate this for me ? look like a good US data

[pelle64]

Okey folks its SELL time on EUR/USD buy tima on USD/CHF


No need to name any entry or exit points (EUR/USD trading 1.3244 USD/CHF 1.2141 -

Im in BIG time with 100 pips stoploss.

Take care

[dkalense]

Hello everyone-
the markets have been reacting (or not reacting) to mixed data-
(at least mixed as far as the FED is concerned)

EUR/USD- short

I hope the CPI is hot.
Poor USD needs it badly.
dkalense.

[FXInvestor]

current euro high 3293 right now around 3290

stage-1 heavy selling done targetting 30 - 40 pips enough to cover tiny floating loss make sufficient profits.

lets see how it goes here

[mister78]

Before I read your comments I hedged my euro short trade opened long just before Asian session today (thu/fri night). euro went up to its high at Jan.3. The movement was strong.

Yet I closed that hedge following the Iris comment which is convincing - a great analysis I think everyone appreciate it.

The fundamental analysis is the most interesting valuable the most crucial for the understing. Even if the market goes againts it - then we can try to identify the reason why learn more about the beaviour (psychology) of the market. It requires knowledge experience. Only professionals can do it I cant (my field is rather the economic theory while here you must put this theory in practice for real world not a modeled economy)

I mind what Summerset said that we may observe euro going up to at least this range (3280-3305 if I remember). Right it is possible the euro break the top of Jan 3 might even break the Dec 4-8 but it is less likely.

My intuition is that in long horizons euro will tend to test the resisstance rather than supports - it will go up. It seems to me that us badly needs cheap dollar to minimize the threat of recession. But US market has a lot of competitive products - as long as dollar is low there will be always a great dem for us goods. That is what happens now. US has will have the most competitive advanced economy for the next couple of years the world will buy it products if the prices goes down.

There is no threat of recession in US related to the slower growth - the threat is the cashflow (households have big debts). That is the usd uncertainity which i think overprices euro.

But again I apologize for not being expert - so i will try not to mess this place to often please mind it just an intuitional analysis.

Finally let me say that euro may still go up 1.3300 on Asian today. It may cross the Dec 4-8 high - there is no logic in this but maybe euro knows it will fall just want to test how far it may go up in the future. Make a new ressistance.

I just hope it will go downd quickly because i almost blew up the account.