Hello Everyone.......
King...Will try to do a Usd/Jpy assessment into the Open...and Phillip will probably want to add his perspective seeing he actively trades this pair as well as all others who may have a Directional view...as well as any pair...post away.
An important relationship is Testing Time and Price @ it's extremes...
Let's have a look @ the Weekly Eur/Jpy vs the Usd/Jpy Range as they relate to the ECB's call on excessive Euro appreciation against the Yen and the G7's communique on One Way Positioning being dangerous in the Carry Trade...currently on the Weekly we see that the Eur/Jpy has reached a 5+ Year extreme in Time and Price to the Usd/Jpy Range for that period and that the Euro has undergone excessive appreciation vs the USDollar against the Yen.
With last weeks ECB announcement and forecasts for 2007<>2008 the Eur/Jpy Carry Fundamentally has reached a Technical turning point for which has been no surprise to those following the Analysis and Positioning here for over 6 weeks as we have Postioned this Sell Reversal.
The ECB does not want to see the Eur/Jpy breakout North of this Weekly 5+ Year Usd/Jpy Range...as well as the BOJ for it does not correctly relfect the Fundamentals of the EuroZone and Japan...and we may be in for a significant Correction and Selloff...for which both have said they were monitoring and would take neccesary steps to maintain Price stability within accurate Fundamental/Technical Zones.
Eur/Jpy is @ an extreme Time Fundamental in light of last weeks ECB statement...and @ a Technical Zone that tests the High of the Usd/Jpy Weekly valuation Range...Let's see if this correlation along with other important factors delivers the Price Discovery for our Strategy for a Sell Reversal within the Eur/Jpy Carry Trade toward a decisive Selloff.
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We have been persistent in Selling the Eur/Jpy Carry for over 6 weeks now and have appraoched a Key Time Linear @ the 1.618 @...162.92...and our 1st Signal decline break onto 162.60 Zone to test/break the Low @ 162.18 enroute to the 161.75<>161.30 Zone.
Added another extension Eur/Jpy Sell @ 164.40 along with exisiting Sell's @ 164.20<>164<>163.88<>163.85<>163.80 as we are heavily Positioned to Sell the Eur/Jpy Carry Trade.
A South break @ the Eur/Jpy Time Linear 1.618 @ 162.92 builds velocity to this South Reversal onto the above decline Zones.
The Eur/Jpy Carry has a decline break @ the Time Linear @ 162.92 thru 162.60 Zone to a current Low @ 162.34 and we are also into incredible gains in our Eur/Jpy Sell Positions.
The Eur/Jpy has a South break @ 162.30/20 Zone to a current Low @ 161.78...for which Key Support @ 161.75 on a break will develop our next decline Zones @ 161.75<>161.30 as our Eur/Jpy Sell's @ 164.40<>164.20<>163.88<>163.85 and 163.80 are entering Oustanding 4 digit gains on this Sell Reversal.
We are still holding All Sell Positions in the Eur/Jpy Carry as an unwinding has begun with todays Low @ 161.78 with a South break confirmation @ 161.30onto the Monthly 50Fib @ 160.50<>160.00 after an incredible week of Price action.
Key Support break @ 161.30 next Signal onto 160.50<>160 Eur/Jpy.
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