Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Eur/Usd.....................

It appears after almost a week of G8 and Global Market reaction that the Eur/Usd is ready for some interesting movement. Price has remained in the 1.1533 high to 1.1416 low....Range from the 1.1359 9/21 Open.

Upside has begun to show signs of Apexing for a resumption of the Monthly Trend South.... this move North has shown a move from the 1.0940 break to the 1.1533 current High.....600 pips.
Interesting facet about this upmove.....on the Monthly frame...
the move has had velocity strength for the Rally...yet its sustainment has not followed through....the Long Term Trend is still down in Directional Price movement.....momentum/magnitude for a vigourous climb North is diminishing in this Trends phase of Accumulation/Distribution.

The Commercials have deepened their Bearish Euro/Bullish Usd
posture...........current Committment of Traders data....

Euro Commercial Positions.......
Date.......Long............Short...........Bullish ..........Open Interest

9/9 ...... 53,083 ....... 69,694 ......... 43% ............ 114,940
9/16 .....28,498 ........50,958 ......... 36% ............ 80,591

Usdx Commercial Positions.......
Date...... Long.............Short...........Bullish.......... .Open Interest

9/9 ....... 5,333 ......... 5,671 .......... 48% ............ 14,056
9/16 ..... 2,884 ......... 2,631 .......... 52% ............ 11,795

The Smart Money have increased their shift towards the downside on the Euro...while Large Speculators have a 62% Bullish bias/Small Speculators 64%.....Usdx is building Bullish sentiment....Large Specs at 52%..Small Specs at 40%...a sign of consolidation/reversal from the widening divergence in Position.

Upside move might not be totally done.....may see a final burst High for a retest of the 7/24/03 High at 1.1548 Daily...with a Falire Swing upside move at the 6/30/03 High of 1.1608 to nullify... short term... the move South. The 9/22 Low at 1.1416 is the launch point for a break South to test/break the 1.1100 basis....Higher positioining should be in context to the possible upside burst...this consolidation is breaking its boundaries with a move to the high end of the consolidation Range.... a nice fade .....with no strength.

Time the Trend.

Iris

[Iris]

Eur/Usd/Gbp......................


Committment of Traders Data:

Euro.............
Date.......... Long ............ Short ......... Bullish ........ Open Interest
9/09.......... 53,085 ......... 69,694 ........ 43% .......... 114,940
9/16.......... 28,498 ......... 50,958 ........ 36% .......... 80,591
9/23.......... 21,389.......... 53,635 ........ 29% .......... 82,549


Usdx..............
Date.......... Long ............ Short .......... Bullish .......... Open Interest
9/09.......... 5,333 ........... 5,671 ....... 48% .......... 14,056
9/16.......... 2,884 ........... 2,631 ....... 52% .......... 11,795
9/23.......... 4,741 ........... 2,078 ....... 70% .......... 16,602

Gbp...............
Date......... Long ............. Short .......... Bullish .......... Open Interest
9/09......... 22,711 .......... 23,970 ...... 49% .......... 44,767
9/16......... 8,509 .......... 14,517 ...... 37% .......... 26,786
9/23......... 5,716 .......... 24,115 ...... 19% .......... 36,402

The Smart Money in the Euro have continued their Distribution.
As the Commercials in Usdx have increased Accumulation.
Commercials in the Gbp have moved heavily to Distribution.

The Eur/Usd is in a push for the 1.1470....1.1500 basis. Asian session is trying to rally back to the Gap Open 9/28.
Move South is Positioning.

Time the Trend.

Iris

[currencia]

Not sure what all that means there Iris, but I am accumulating eurousd shorts at the 1500 level.

[reg]

But do I sell?

[Iris]

Currencia................

Excellent Positioning.
Last Weeks consolidation at the 1.1500/33 basis was Positioning.
Your in the Higher Percentile Range of the Move South.

Time the Trend.

Iris

[Iris]

Eur/Usd......................

Not Surprising.................

Upside move might not be totally done.....may see a final burst High for a retest of the 7/24/03 High at 1.1548 Daily...with a Failure Swing upside move at the 6/30/03 High of 1.1608 to nullify... short term... the move South.

Higher positioining should be in context to the possible upside burst...

Market has delivered...........Reversal at the door.

Time the Trend.

Iris

[James]

It can also be good to buy Euro's sometimes. It's not always going South.

Happens to me too sometimes, but perhaps you don't see the other side of the market?

Euro, together with just about everything else, is clearly bullish vs the greenback, and probably will be for a while.

[currencia]

Well James, keep longing them euros then! Please don't be presumptuous as to what works. The south on euro from the1500 level was good for 100+ pips in gains. The few good traders I know are prepared to trade in both directions at any given time they are in the market. So, we had about 120 pips south and now about 200 pips north. Did you catch both, either, or neither?