Sell Eur/Usd

[bearprofits]

Originally Posted by pelle64

Okey, here we are waiting for a last top... the south is on next week and im looking to sell from next top 1.5732 - 1.5850 for a ride down to 1.4962

Pelle

I have to agree on the run back to the 1.5 level, but why are you picking the 5732 - 5850 level to reverse from?

1.5697 is the 200% retrace of the 04 dollar run.

just a thought,

[TraderPierre]

1.5720 area is an extension of the 0.8225 to 1.3665 (October 2000 to Dec 2004), 1.70 would be the next level as far as I can see which I think is highly unlikely.

It's hard to see what fundamental catalyst could cause a move up to 1.70, Fed 100bp cut is pretty much priced in, there's more chance of some profit taking at these extreme levels so I'd go with pelle64.

[Noor]

Hi Bear, Pelle ... everyone.

Why Go with Pelle, I cant see any reversal signs at all .

Price tried to reverse from 1.522 as well from 1.54 and failed... I would say this is the strongest North move since 2006. As a matter of fact, this is the strongest north move I ever seen since I started trading forex .

We had a strong north move when price broke 1.3000
Another stronger north move when the price jumped above 1.4000
Now we have an even stronger north move after breaking 1.5000

I would say the only level that makes a little sense to reverse from is 1.5950.

With Cot data showing continuation of the up-trend, adding strength to 1.5550. also Usd/Chf closed below 1.0000 strong psychological level as a proof of a strong North move still to come in Eur/Usd next week.

The Market is currently pricing 75 basis rate cut... If FED cuts rates to 50 only, then south might make a little more sense.

[bearprofits]

Originally Posted by TraderPierre

1.5720 area is an extension of the 0.8225 to 1.3665 (October 2000 to Dec 2004), 1.70 would be the next level as far as I can see which I think is highly unlikely.

It's hard to see what fundamental catalyst could cause a move up to 1.70, Fed 100bp cut is pretty much priced in, there's more chance of some profit taking at these extreme levels so I'd go with pelle64.

I don't see any reason why the dollar will not continue to fall, Euro 1.70 is a definite possibility, but it will not go there directly. I imagine there's many more disappointing facts to be uncovered in the current credit debacle, much like what we saw coming out of Bear Stearns last week.

But the Euro sector is not without their problems, mainly internal politics. What goes up must come down, but there's still many hills and valleys to trade till then. But the trend at the moment is up, so any south trades should be viewed as corrective in nature.

[bearprofits]

Originally Posted by Noor

Hi Bear, Pelle ... everyone.

Why Go with Pelle, I cant see any reversal signs at all .

Price tried to reverse from 1.522 as well from 1.54 and failed... I would say this is the strongest North move since 2006. As a matter of fact, this is the strongest north move I ever seen since I started trading forex .

We had a strong north move when price broke 1.3000
Another stronger north move when the price jumped above 1.4000
Now we have an even stronger north move after breaking 1.5000

I would say the only level that makes a little sense to reverse from is 1.5950.

With Cot data showing continuation of the up-trend, adding strength to 1.5550. also Usd/Chf closed below 1.0000 strong psychological level as a proof of a strong North move still to come in Eur/Usd next week.

The Market is currently pricing 75 basis rate cut... If FED cuts rates to 50 only, then south might make a little more sense.

Noor,

I'm just looking for a bounce off the fib level, and a breather or correction. Price is along way from me calling a reversal

I will have to add that the current sentiment is extremely bullish, which makes me take notice that the herd is priming it's self for a killing

[TraderPierre]

Originally Posted by bearprofits

I don't see any reason why the dollar will not continue to fall, Euro 1.70 is a definite possibility, but it will not go there directly. I imagine there's many more disappointing facts to be uncovered in the current credit debacle, much like what we saw coming out of Bear Stearns last week.

But the Euro sector is not without their problems, mainly internal politics. What goes up must come down, but there's still many hills and valleys to trade till then. But the trend at the moment is up, so any south trades should be viewed as corrective in nature.

Bigger picture bear, you need to look at the bigger fundamental picture. You also need to take into consideration what has already been priced in and where dollar weakness starts to become a problem for the real powers in this market, the central banks. As I mentioned in another thread, central banks will not allow a dollar freefall or for speculators to dictate the prosperity or otherwise of the world's economies. They tolerate these speculative moves but that is all, there is a limit to what they will expose their respective economies to and once that limit is reached make no mistake they will act in concert. There's talk of a line in the sand at 80 on Usd/Jpy and the ECB has intimated levels much above 160 on Eur/Usd would be uncomfortable. Once they make those levels absolutely clear then the market tends to respect them (or fear them!). I don't know if you were around for the BOJ intervention a few years ago but that was a good example, once the jawboning stopped and they had issued a shot across the bows it was every man for himself who dared to short dollar/yen!

We've had a good run but it can't last forever.

If I remember correctly you were in the 'definitely won't break 1.30' camp not so long ago weren't you

[bearprofits]

Originally Posted by TraderPierre

Bigger picture bear, you need to look at the bigger fundamental picture. You also need to take into consideration what has already been priced in and where dollar weakness starts to become a problem for the real powers in this market, the central banks. As I mentioned in another thread, central banks will not allow a dollar freefall or for speculators to dictate the prosperity or otherwise of the world's economies. They tolerate these speculative moves but that is all, there is a limit to what they will expose their respective economies to and once that limit is reached make no mistake they will act in concert. There's talk of a line in the sand at 80 on Usd/Jpy and the ECB has intimated levels much above 160 on Eur/Usd would be uncomfortable. Once they make those levels absolutely clear then the market tends to respect them (or fear them!). I don't know if you were around for the BOJ intervention a few years ago but that was a good example, once the jawboning stopped and they had issued a shot across the bows it was every man for himself who dared to short dollar/yen!

We've had a good run but it can't last forever.

If I remember correctly you were in the 'definitely won't break 1.30' camp not so long ago weren't you

Traderpierre

Hahahaha, I don’t recall stating my reputation on the fact that 1.30 would not break. But it did make sense that the .618 price retracement in concert with the .618 extension in time of the 04’ dollar run would be a nice reversal point, which that area held in range for a good time. (Btw, there were other professional sources preaching the same ting) But when it broke, it broke decisively, took a retrace to the backside as support and hasn’t looked back.

I agree with your assertion that the Central banks will act in unison, but I’m not sure they will be able to stop the tide, but more try to form a cushion for a softer bounce. Make no mistake the market is theirs, but the US is in no position to make any sustained effort with it’s reserves so it will need the help of the others…. They have already tried with no effect so I doubt they will be able to form an impenetrable wall. But more of a series of statements, cash liquidity infusions, and credit manipulations to slow the rapid advance.

As for the EU, imho, it’s still fragile and for many of it’s members, a strong Euro is not what they want.

I remember the days of BOJ intervention, but this is different as the US financial markets are teetering on the verge of a major correction.

[TraderPierre]

Originally Posted by bearprofits

Traderpierre

Hahahaha, I don’t recall stating my reputation on the fact that 1.30 would not break. But it did make sense that the .618 price retracement in concert with the .618 extension in time of the 04’ dollar run would be a nice reversal point, which that area held in range for a good time. (Btw, there were other professional sources preaching the same ting) But when it broke, it broke decisively, took a retrace to the backside as support and hasn’t looked back.

I agree with your assertion that the Central banks will act in unison, but I’m not sure they will be able to stop the tide, but more try to form a cushion for a softer bounce. Make no mistake the market is theirs, but the US is in no position to make any sustained effort with it’s reserves so it will need the help of the others…. They have already tried with no effect so I doubt they will be able to form an impenetrable wall. But more of a series of statements, cash liquidity infusions, and credit manipulations to slow the rapid advance.

As for the EU, imho, it’s still fragile and for many of it’s members, a strong Euro is not what they want.

I remember the days of BOJ intervention, but this is different as the US financial markets are teetering on the verge of a major correction.

Bear, I wouldn't know where to start to reply to that post there are so many misguided points!

On the plus side at least you have yourself an opinion.

Good luck & good trading



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