Sell Eur/Usd

[Noor]

TraderPierre,

The Forex is traded with over 10 trillions DAILY !

30% out of that goes into Euro/Usd Alone.

Now, how much money would central banks pump into the Market?
100 Billion? 200 billion? 400 Billion?!

Do you really think pumping 3% out of the tottal money traded in Euro/Usd would Flip the direction?
This 3% would get eaten easily, and will never have any effect on the monthly chart. You wont see it.

Perhaps it would be easier for them to flip the direction by faking their economic numbers... It would be a much easier/cheaper less risky way... But cant be applyed in current time since the US economy is in a big trouble now.

[currencia]

Yes, TraderPierre, have a great day managing your bulletin board, your ego, and your sophmoric writings. Not the characteristics a great trader makes.

[TraderPierre]

Originally Posted by Noor

TraderPierre,

The Forex is traded with over 10 trillions DAILY !

30% out of that goes into Euro/Usd Alone.

Now, how much money would central banks pump into the Market?
100 Billion? 200 billion? 400 Billion?!

Do you really think pumping 3% out of the tottal money traded in Euro/Usd would Flip the direction?
This 3% would get eaten easily, and will never have any effect on the monthly chart. You wont see it.

Perhaps it would be easier for them to flip the direction by faking their economic numbers... It would be a much easier/cheaper less risky way... But cant be applyed in current time since the US economy is in a big trouble now.

Hi Noor

I'm not sure where you're getting your volume information from, it can only be an estimate, but that's not really important here so there's no point dwelling on it.

Intervention is not as simple as for example the MOF instructing the BOJ to sell Yen or buy USD and off they go to fight the market. Intervention requires meticulous strategic planning and co-ordination, details like the time and volume must be exact or else it risks being ineffective, the amount of research that goes into it is staggering. The BOJ for example have a vast war chest available specifically for the purposes of manipulating currencies both overtly and covertly and they use it wisely and without hesitation when needed as we've seen in the past with some spectaculor results.

Aside from that their biggest weapon is rhetoric, jawboning. How many times have we heard rumours on the wires that the BOJ is likely to intervene at a certain level, everyone pays close attention because they obviously want to trade with the institutional flow, no-one in their right mind would trade against it. Back in 2004 buying Usd/Jpy at 103 was pretty much a no-brainer! Do you see how it works, the BOJ aren't fighting the market, market participants are using the BOJ volume and visa-versa, the BOJ's job in the most part is already done with the help of the market.

Now imagine co-ordinated intervention by all the G7 central banks, when that line in the sand is drawn it's pretty much another no-brainer. With the exception of probing for and running stops the major players respect (or as I've said before perhaps fear) those levels, why swim against the tide? Look at how Eur/Usd was supported in 2000/01 by co-ordinated intervention, no-one can say it doesn't have the desired effect.

Anyone who thinks central bank intervention is ineffective is living in a dream world, and if they think co-ordinated central bank intervention is ineffective they probably need a straightjacket!

That's a very over-simplified explanation because the subject is so complex it would probably take an economics degree to fully understand it and I'm not that clever.

Anyway I better go and manage my bulletin board, my ego, and what was it, oh yes my 'sophmoric writings', lol, whatever they are! And that's all before I have to go and flip burgers at the local McD's! Hey, I have to pay the mortgage somehow when Landlord Bernanke comes a knockin'

Have fun all, trade safe.....and watch out for intervention

[Noor]

Originally Posted by TraderPierre

Hi Noor

I'm not sure where you're getting your volume information from, it can only be an estimate, but that's not really important here so there's no point dwelling on it.

Intervention is not as simple as for example the MOF instructing the BOJ to sell Yen or buy USD and off they go to fight the market. Intervention requires meticulous strategic planning and co-ordination, details like the time and volume must be exact or else it risks being ineffective, the amount of research that goes into it is staggering. The BOJ for example have a vast war chest available specifically for the purposes of manipulating currencies both overtly and covertly and they use it wisely and without hesitation when needed as we've seen in the past with some spectaculor results.

Aside from that their biggest weapon is rhetoric, jawboning. How many times have we heard rumours on the wires that the BOJ is likely to intervene at a certain level, everyone pays close attention because they obviously want to trade with the institutional flow, no-one in their right mind would trade against it. Back in 2004 buying Usd/Jpy at 103 was pretty much a no-brainer! Do you see how it works, the BOJ aren't fighting the market, market participants are using the BOJ volume and visa-versa, the BOJ's job in the most part is already done with the help of the market.

Now imagine co-ordinated intervention by all the G7 central banks, when that line in the sand is drawn it's pretty much another no-brainer. With the exception of probing for and running stops the major players respect (or as I've said before perhaps fear) those levels, why swim against the tide? Look at how Eur/Usd was supported in 2000/01 by co-ordinated intervention, no-one can say it doesn't have the desired effect.

Anyone who thinks central bank intervention is ineffective is living in a dream world, and if they think co-ordinated central bank intervention is ineffective they probably need a straightjacket!

That's a very over-simplified explanation because the subject is so complex it would probably take an economics degree to fully understand it and I'm not that clever.

Anyway I better go and manage my bulletin board, my ego, and what was it, oh yes my 'sophmoric writings', lol, whatever they are! And that's all before I have to go and flip burgers at the local McD's! Hey, I have to pay the mortgage somehow when Landlord Bernanke comes a knockin'

Have fun all, trade safe.....and watch out for intervention

hahahaha,,, Your funny

Though your Market perspective is very Well explained now, and must respect you for taking the time and sharing it... Much appreciated.

I guess Iris will be happy when he comes in and see a constructive debate has actually happened on his thread, we kept on getting mostly people bashing it for years now.

Thank you Traderpierre, May I ask you what is the best website you would recommend for such news on Market intervention??

[TraderPierre]

Originally Posted by Noor

hahahaha,,, Your funny

Though your Market perspective is very Well explained now, and must respect you for taking the time and sharing it... Much appreciated.

I guess Iris will be happy when he comes in and see a constructive debate has actually happened on his thread, we kept on getting mostly people bashing it for years now.

Thank you Traderpierre, May I ask you what is the best website you would recommend for such news on Market intervention??

Speaking of Iris, where is he lately? I enjoyed his analysis, some of it was exceptional (not to say you guys don't post some exceptional analysis as well of course, even you Currencia!).

People love bashing success, unfortunately I think it goes with the territory.

Resources:

Personally I believe every trader should have access to at least one live financial news channel like CNBC or Bloomberg and have it on in the background. Sátellite feed is really cheap (or free in some countries) and you'll have access to unlimited unbiased news, analysis, interviews, all from respected sources, as well as live coverage of important events like the ECB press conference, rate decisions, Bernanke, Bush (well ok you can mute the sound!), and of course market rumours like intervention and such. The people interviewed are the people who move these markets and unlike stocks there's unlikely to be any ulterior motive in what they say. This is where you'll pick up some valuable insight into how this and other markets operate and how major participants think, it can be a real education. And if you get bored at the weekend there's a regular technical analysis feature on Saturday and Sunday which is quite good.

If you can't get it via sátellite or cable then Bloomberg TV and radio is available (with a slight delay) free on the net www.bloomberg.com and they've got daily market analysis on there as well. Reuters is another great source of info, this is the link to their currencies page http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies

On sites like that you'll pick up all sorts of useful little gems and you know the source is respected as opposed to some of those other websites where you're not sure who is doing the analysis or whose opinion you are reading.

There was an excellent website that used to retransmit live info off a Reuters terminal for something like $50 a month but I think they got busted and got shut down for breaching copyright!

If you want to listen to a trading radio station with live phone-in there's Global FX Radio http://www.globalfxradio.com/ which used to be free but I've just seen there's a charge now for some premium service or other, maybe the regular service is still free I'm not sure.

If Moneytec admin got their act together they could promote these things and probably get some decent discounts for Moneytec members, as well as discounts off things like charting packages, books, trading videos, educational courses, even signal services! As it is it's been left to it's own devices by the look of it, with just the lone Sheriff Wayner keeping law and order and the spammers out

(what's up with typing , it blocks it, s-a-t-e-l-l-i-t-e)

[pelle64]

Hi everyone...

I have 3 lots running since yesterday and key level is yesterdays high @ 1.5904 i cant see any reason for the eur/usd not push higher today. The target for today is 1.6030 and i expect a charp drop after this last rally.

So enjoy the ride :-)


Pelle

[pelle64]

Selling Usd/jpy @ 97.80 to a south move to 94.63 resistans level 97.81- 98.18

[pelle64]

Originally Posted by pelle64

Selling Usd/jpy @ 97.80 to a south move to 94.63 resistans level 97.81- 98.18

Sell order hit - the drade is in progress s/l 98.18