Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Very astute Pete...All Sides of the USD Equation......

Bonds too are in this game.

And the 30Year Treasuries are Net Short at over a 2+ year extreme...Bond Market is also looking at a strengthening in the USD.

Great Work my Friend.

[Iris]

Pete from your Long Term Thread Posted on 10/23/04.........

1.28<>1.2750 is currently the South Time/Price Apex down from the 92 High...with the new Candle for November fast approaching...>1.27<>1.2650 becomes that Time Apex...if Oct.'s Monthly Candle implodes with a move South to a test/break of 1.24 it will change the Dynamic from green to red...and maintain the South Time/Price Apex from the 92 High...green channel.

........with a North test/break at 1.2825<>1.2850 advancing onto the NT61.8 Time Phib...currently at 1.3120.

The South Time/Price Apex held at 1.28<>1.2840........

[bearprofits]

Just curious to hear others thoughts, oil dropped a few dollars per barrel on good oil reserve news, dow is up, dollar gains on the majors. Few days ago, oil skyrockets and the dollar goes down the drain. Am I wrong but wouldn't high oil prices effect everyone, Yes were the biggest consumer but it seems the dollar is really being jerked around by the oil news without a real fundamental basis for the recent price swings.

Just a poor Bear's thoughts...... Let the Bear Bashing Begin!!!

[Iris]

Hello Bear....Good Question my Friend.....

Am I wrong but wouldn't high oil prices effect everyone, Yes were the biggest consumer but it seems the dollar is really being jerked around by the oil news without a real fundamental basis for the recent price swings.

Crude Oil is priced in US Dollar's therefore USD's valuation thru a weak USD has exacerbated a growing Demand for the global consumption of Oil relative to Higher Inflationary levels thru strained producer capacity. With the emergence of China's increasing demand for Oil and other Commodities...the Supply line for Oil has been crimped...Oil producers no longer see that the Global demand for Oil is a theoretical but reality and thus Oil producers not positioning for this eventual outcome in demand...has strained the supply quota's of producers who maintained lower levels because of a weak USD...lower valuation=smaller profits. Now with a Bull Run in Oil...producers must increase output to contain the advance or add insult to injury...Bull Oil/Inflationary levels/Weak USD=profit implosion.

With Oil at Inflationary Central Bank levels...priced in US Dollar's...any Oil quota news +/- will impact the USD. When Supply quotas increase it is positive USD news and thus a Rally...continued Supply strains thru producer capacity will continue the Bull Oil advance and weak USD because of Inflationary concerns.

Oil into US Dollar's relative to the Supply/Demand equation will determine a Fundamental alignment based on Output vs. Demand in context to Inflation...for which Oil priced in USD will respond.

[bearprofits]

Iris

Thanks for the explanation! Very interesting!

Was catching a little mid day news on CNBC, they were speculating on the recent drop in oil prices, was this a correction or the start of a reversal? They mentioned some different oil co.s stocks were down at the close, which in their view usually precluded a bearish market........ Now the News is going to start.

Makes one wonder


Next week should be interesting

Wishing everyone a great weekend

Bear

[Iris]

Eur/Usd..............

Looking for same North containment on Eur/Usd at 1.2830<>1.2809 for a South decline thru 1.2750<>1.27 for further weakness to 1.2650<>1.26 basis.

A North continuation would be triggered with a break of 1.2850 for an advance to the Highs at 1.2927<>1.30 level.

Time/Price has oscillated in the 1.2841<>1.2625 Range as the US Presidential election is ready to Vote...with upcoming FED Policy and firming US Economic Data for the remainder of 2004 into 2005 solidifying. Oil is still the wildcard tho an anticipated pullback has occured from $55.65 to be currently $51.86.

Still Looking for 1.2830<>1.2809 to contain the North advance for South entries thru 1.27 for 1.2650<>1.26 with 1.2850 triggering a North advance for 1.2927<>1.30+ Highs.

USD sits at the 84.98<>85 basis with a gathering of Long Term
factors not seen since the inception of the Weak/South USD downturn....

Major Alignments are Positioning for the New Long Term.

Time for the Fundamental/Technical equation to clarify.

[psperos]

Good analysis Iris.

USD shorts grow even bigger after a small pullback the week before. Any comments on this?

[Iris]

Hello Pete.............

USD shorts grow even bigger after a small pullback the week before. Any comments on this?

The Commercial Positioning has been evident for 6weeks and building.......Net Long High Percentile...a different view on the Large Specs in relation to their current Net Short Positioning. The average annual mean...yellow line... that the Large Specs instituted Directional Movement are highlighted in Red for decline and Green for a Rally in USD...below the mean to extreme Net Short Positioning triggered North Rallies...currently we have a YTD+ extreme not only against the Commercials but also from the average annual mean for Positioning which translates into a double extreme as far as Price Discovery goes...and add Open Interest also into the equation at YTD Highs and 84.50><>85.50 builds a base.

Looking for a Short Covering Rally back to 87.50<>88.50 basis.