Sell Eur/Usd

[psperos]

Nice work iris,

Yields are also sneaking up as the USD makes new lows and euro makes new highs at all time highs of USD index shorts and EUROFX longs.

I’m not shorting the euro at this time though. I’m going to wait to see the outcome of the events this Wednesday. I’m hoping to short above 1.3 on a knee jerk reaction that will end up being the top for the euro. Look for a surprise in the Friday’s retail sales. This could fuel start the 10yr yields to start a move above 4.3%, starting a USD bull run.

Trichet has also set the mood for the G7 the weekend after next. USD bounce should start this week into next... Hopefully new eur/usd highs before then for nice shorting prices.

[psperos]

We can't forget about these guys either

They are getting ready....

[amarnath]

Hi

Are they BOJ you mean ?

[psperos]

yeah

[Iris]

Great Analysis Peter..........

We can't forget about these guys either

They are getting ready....

And you can guarentee that BOJ is watching the Bond Market to Pre-Position. Extreme Sentiment anchored to the Fundamentals
...going to be an important week for indications and Positioning.

Both Sides of the Story my Friend.

One sets the other in Motion.

[Iris]

Euro/Oil...............
From the 10/26/04 Post.........

Oil appears to have Topped...1st substantial downturn in Open Interest...Longs are Covering...in conjunction with W5High.

Oil is still volatile...Double Top or Spike High?...maybe tho a break of $52<>$51 would negate that...and fuel a USD Technical North advance....Oil hits a W5High at Technical resistance...and OI decline shows Exits underway.

Time/Price has advanced North to current Alltime High at 1.2976...the ECB's rationale for allowing the Euro to appreciate is strictly based on Oil's inflationary effects in the EU... for which a containment at $50<>$52bbl would make the Voices in Euroland begin to sound as ECB President Trichet echoed last week on "excess volitility" from the G7 Communique' earlier this year.

Looking for a North containment at the 618Fib at 1.2991<>1.30 for a South Reversal decline thru 1.29 to 1.2850 basis.

Time/Price has established a new Alltime High at 1.2985...with a South Reversal decline currently at 1.2889. Looking for a North containment inside the NT50 TimePhib at 1.2935 for a South continuance to the 382/50Fib at 1.2850 1.2807 basis.

North breaks of 1.2950 Target a run at the Highs onto the 1.3075 level.

With Oils South Reversal from $55.70 to a current Low at $47.80 thru Supply increases...the Voices of EuroLand have begun to echo for a containment of the coveted 1.30 level...currently Time/Price for Eur/Usd has North High at 1.2937 to a South decline low at 1.2880...Looking for North containment at the NT50TF at 1.2935 for a South decline thru 1.29 to the 1.2850<>1.2807 basis.

The Chart for Oil from 10/26/04.........

[Iris]

Crude Oil...Nov 9, 2004............

[Iris]

Yields are also sneaking up as the USD makes new lows and euro makes new highs at all time highs of USD index shorts and EUROFX longs.

Look for a surprise in the Friday’s retail sales. This could fuel start the 10yr yields to start a move above 4.3%, starting a USD bull run.

The Bond Market awaits the FED statement...as the 25bps has already been factored into the Market thus bringing the FED hike to 2.00%... the US Dollar sits at 84.31 and close to a break thru to -83<>+85 basis...the prior FED statement Rallied the Bond Market on low inflationary pressures where tommorow the Ears will be listening for possible deficit comments in conjunction to the current outlook on Growth/Debt/Inflation measures.

Gold hits 16 year Highs at $436 and the US Dollar firms at 84<>84.50 with a Oil Reversal from $55 to $47....with the Bond Market poised for an advance to the Yield curve.

US Trade data...and then the FOMC delivers to the Bond Market and the US Dollar...the Fundamentals.