Sell Eur/Usd

[Iris]

Eur/Usd.................

Time/Price has Alltime High at 1.3005 with a current South decline Low at 1.2846...Looking for a North containment at the NT61.8 TimePhib at 1.3028 for a South Reversal decline thru 1.2950<>1.29 for a retest of important support at 1.2850 basis.

The 1.2850 level is a 1st Signal alert to watch...as a North advance from here has moved to within setting a new Alltime High...with a South decline break heading for the 382 Fib at 1.2650 basis.

[Speculator]

Cardinal time^2 from 8 / 30 still looks good. If it is correct for today, we shall see a low < 1.2870…? However as it could be seen from the table 3 of last 4 lows came 1 day earlier...

[Iris]

Euro...............

With Oil off its excess inflationary Highs...and a week off ECB/Euro officials setting the tone...a decline in Open Interest for the Euro is the 1st empirical evidence that the Longs are starting to Cover.

Open Interest downturn...decrease in Euro Large Spec Longs hold the Key.

Open Interest in the Euro Single Currency has begun to have a downturn...and a sharp drop in Volume...along with challenging OI Yearly Highs.......

Eur/Usd has current North High at 1.2997 into a South decline thus far at 1.2953........

Looking for a North containment at the NT61.8 TimePhib at 1.3028 for a South Reversal decline thru 1.2950<>1.29 for a retest of important support at 1.2850 basis.

[Iris]

Hello Speculator.....

Interesting how the Major High/Lows from Sept1 had a 1/1A advance into a 2/2A decline to a 3/3A advance to...an Inversion at the 4/4a Low being at the Top of the Matrix...into a 5/5A decline being 5A the current Top at 1.3005... tho the calculation was South.

Great Work as usual Spec.

[Speculator]

Thanks Iris. Same for you. However, I prefer great results instead of great work… which is not always the case…

Price Square from 8/30 low looks even better... only few pips deviation (<8) in each instance and very interesting table configuration. Take a look:
(I usually disregard the 9 central values as they are too close)

[Iris]

Eur/Usd.................

Looking for a North containment at the NT61.8 TimePhib at 1.3028 for a South Reversal decline thru 1.2950<>1.29 for a retest of important support at 1.2850 basis.

Time/Price from the Open has a North High at 1.2997 with a current South Low at 1.2916...Looking for the North containment to move down to 1.2955/65 for a South move next level to 1.2910 to a break of 1.29 to 1.2880<>1.2850 basis.

[Iris]

Eur/Usd...................

Looking for a North containment at the NT61.8 TimePhib at 1.3028 for a South Reversal decline thru 1.2950<>1.29 for a retest of important support at 1.2850 basis.
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Time/Price from the Open has a North High at 1.2997 with a current South Low at 1.2916...Looking for the North containment to move down to 1.2955/65 for a South move next level to 1.2910 to a break of 1.29 to 1.2880<>1.2850 basis.

Time/Price has North advance to 1.2994...as 1.30 has become increasingingly harder to break with the North Bulls being overturned on a 4th attempt. Looking for major resistance North containment/Stops at 1.3028 to be the Bull Test for a run to 1.3075+... for South Reversal Entries to 1.2950<>1.2910 thru 1.29 to 1.2880<>1.2850 basis.

The North Bulls launched off of the 1Hour>200MA at 1.2910/20 only to run into another Apex decline...1.2880<>1.2850 will be a 5th attempt at a break of 1.30<>1.3028 basis...with a South break of 1.2850<>1.28 targeting the 1.2650 level.

[Iris]

With Capital Flows coming in at $63.4Billion...and an upward revised for August at $59.9Billion...the Deficit woes for USD weakness have begun to shift the pendulum from structural deficiencies to GDP/NFP/FED Data.

With Oil off its inflationary Highs signaling a Euro negative...and with Capital Flows outpacing the Deficit the US Dollar will have a reprieve...with this upcoming weekends meeting of the Group of 20...the Communique' at the conclusion on Exchange Rates will set the tone to finish 2004 and prepare for 2005.

With the Euro appreciation to 1.30 based on Oil...to an Oil Reversal South to $46bbl...the Trade Deficit was the next and only cause for a Eur/Usd appreciation beyond 1.30+...now with Capital Flows outpacing the US Account Deficit...Eur/Usd has a double negative for a sustained Rally above 1.30 basis.

The Euro Longs have much to ponder...a downturn in Open Interest for the Euro Single Currency will Signal that the Longs are heading for the Exits...and Todays US Capital Flows may be the impetus for the Long Euro Cover.