short term forecasts

[melih]

EUR/USD LOW SELL

NZD/USD LOW SELL

USD/JPY LOW SELL

USD/CHF LOW SELL

The euro rocketed higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2800 figure was supported around the $1.2725 level. Stops were hit above the $1.2780 level representing the 61.8% retracement of the move $1.2980 to $1.2460. Today’s mid-term election in the U.S. is pressuring the dollar as some dollar bulls fear loss of control of the House of Representatives possibly the Senate. A Democratic majority in Congress may roll back the Bush tax cuts that could imperil the dollar. Clevel Fed President Pianalto spoke yesterday was less hawkish in her remarks while Chicago Fed President Moskow reiterated Taking all of the factors on growth inflation into account my current assessment is that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth being too low. Moskow added Thus some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to bring inflation back to a range consistent with price stability in a reasonable period of time.March Eurodollar futures contracts are now pricing in about a 40% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds target rate to 5% in Q1 2007. In eurozone news German September industrial output was off 0.3% m/m below expectations while September EMU-12 retail sales were off unexpectedly. German deputy finance minister Mirow said the ECB’s inflation forecast is consistent with the European Commission’s inflation forecast with the latter expecting 2007 inflation to measure about 2.1%. Eurogroup President Juncker today said EMU-12 growth is on the right track added it is more robust than we though a few months ago or a year ago. Euro bids are cited around the US$ 1.2755/ 20 levels.


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[melih]

EUR/USD BUY

The Euro climbed into the 1.28 area on yesterday setting the daily highs at 1.2819 retraced back into the 1.2770 zone after where it seems to be well supported so far. Interim resistance is now formed by 1.2785 the same resistance it broke on yesterday. Major resistance follows 1.2785 at 1.2830. We are expecting a test of 1.2830 soon if it breaks 1.2875 1.2930 may become soft targets. Support backs 1.2770 at 1.2740 1.2700. While the lower area of 1.27 the mid 1.26 remain intact daily sentiment shall remain bullish therefore favor the upward moves. Current quote is 1.2778

[ZenTrader]

[quote=melih]EUR/USD BUY

The Euro climbed into the 1.28 area on yesterday setting the daily highs at 1.2819 retraced back into the 1.2770 zone after where it seems to be well supported so far. Interim resistance is now formed by 1.2785 the same resistance it broke on yesterday. Major resistance follows 1.2785 at 1.2830. We are expecting a test of 1.2830 soon if it breaks 1.2875 1.2930 may become soft targets. Support backs 1.2770 at 1.2740 1.2700. While the lower area of 1.27 the mid 1.26 remain intact daily sentiment shall remain bullish therefore favor the upward moves. Current quote is 1.2778[/QUOTE

Yet moneytec seems to think trading eurusd ceased sometime in August accordinging the home page....

[melih]

The dollar is trading in a narrow range between 1.2750- 1.28 after the Democrats took control of the U.S. House of Representatives the battle for the Senate still hangs in the balance. As we said before the impact of election is limited as the fiscal policy is not likely to change in near term. The market focus shifted back to fundamentals central bank's rates outlook.
The euro was little changed after a report showed Germany's current account surplus in September widened to 9.4 billion euros 2.4 billion in the previous month.
Besides Bank of Engl is expected to raise rates 4.75% to 5.00% on its policy meetings Thursday.
EURUSD will face interim resistance at 1.28 followed by 1.2830 1.2860. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.2880 backed by 1.29. Support starts at 1.2750 backed by 1.2730 1.27. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.2680.

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