Quote:
modi Bear,
what method of EWT do you folow?
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Modi,
I just try to keep things simple, when I have a hard time making sense of the waves ala Elliott I look to other tools to help. A very wise Guru Trader once told me, If you don’t know where you are your probably in a 4th
Question everyone has to answer is the fall in 2005 was it an Impulse South starting a new longer trend south, or just a correction for more north.
Chart 1.
If we had an impulse 5 wave south ( and by the looks of the similarity of the 1st and 5th waves and the look of a channel, I would say it was) that should be followed by a 3 wave correction north. The high at 12978 looks like it fills all the qualifications for that wave. It ended just a tad over the 61.8 retrace, basically a 200% extension of the first “a” wave. It also has the timing of 61.8% of the total time of the impulse. All that makes one think that we had our top to the correction and we should start the next 5 wave impulse south.
Thus all the talk of Big MAMA.
However there are other views of the high on 30/12/2004 giving rise to the labeling or nomenclature of the 2005 south wave, basically that it was a corrective wave and we should be North Impulsively from the 15/11/2005 1.1639 low
If this is the case.
Chart 2.
We should be in a 4th wave. Either we just have finished it and are heading north off the channel or we are in an extended flat, and I would say we need a 3 to 5 wave south to finish off the 4th and then north for the 5th. The 2 and 4 waves should be opposite form each other. In this case 2 was a sharp so the 4th should be long and difficult. But it shouldn’t close below the top of 1. 1.2326
IMO, there should be some similarity in the 1,3,5 waves. Two of them should be of some equal distance, 1 and 5 or 3 and 5 and ending on some good fib levels.
So if this view is true we can project the lengths of 1 and 3 from the recent 12326 low and look to see where they end equal to the 1st we are 13150/3200 area, if we equal the 3rd we are looking at a double top back at the 13650 area.
If price continues in the 4th flat then from the bottom I would look for a wave equal to the 1st from the top of wave 1 and look for a retest of the bottom of the prior channel and a double top back in the 12900 area.
To me the 1.2326 area holds the key When things are not so clear we need to pull back and trade smaller, and load the boat when everything is pointing in the same direction. Atm, I cant see the trees for the forex, but Im guessing we will double bottom back down at the 2750 small time frame and then make a run back north to the top again from there ???? 5th north or C south, or 5 south?
Bare ramblings….
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