Trading Eur/Usd with uncle Elliot - CLOSED READ LAST POST

[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[fxsurfer]

Following is the 4hr chart where smaller waves can be seen. The daily gives an overall count and a good direction while we fine tune the daily with the 4 hr and use smaller tf's (15min and 1hr) for entries.

[xtsunami]

fxsurfer,

Your counts look very good considering you mention that you have only been using e-wave for half a year.

My own counts differ little from yours. Keep up the good work.

XT

[psperos]

Hi fxs,

I don't want to mess your thread up with my chart( there is nothing worse than an Elliot thread with many versions), but my wave count is very similar to yours.


The difference is, I have larger wave 4 as an ABCDE decending triangle correction. where E ends at the start of your minute wave ii of 3 of the larger 5. So basically your minute wave ii of 3 is where i have the start of wave 1 of larger 5 of (C).

Both counts call for a new low in the euro, but with my count the next move down will be a wave i of 3 of larger 5, not wave v of 3 of larger 5.

There is no way to tell which count will be right, I guess we will see if we go lower than you expect, or we bounce earlier than I expect.

[mahras]

surfer,

How you doing man? Nice to see great analysis. Although I have stopped trading using Elliot waves I still look at them from time to time and your look great. Best of luck and many pips to you as always

[fxsurfer]

Hi xtsunami, psperos and mahras.
Great to see you guys!

Psperos, thanks for the input, all comments are welcome. As we know there are always alternative counts in EW theory. What I am going to try to do here is give a very simple method of counting the waves, leaving out the complex patterns (eg WXY waves etc).

One rule I break doing this is that wave 4 does not overlap wave 1 and in many cases on euro I have found this to occur using this simple method of counting.

I think I will be re-labelling my counts from time to time which in terms of trading may mean taking a hit on a stop, which I am happy to do if the price action proves the wave count wrong. I am going to be looking for the large waves to trade (waves 1,3, III, 5 and V). In my daily trading routine, I try to scalp intra-day looking for minute iii and v off 15 minute charts, they are normally good for 15-20 pips but that wont be discussed here at this stage, maybe later in the thread.

Please post your charts as I would be very interested in seeing how others are counting and what they expect the next wave to be. If anyone has any time studies (Gann/Fib etc) they use successfully, I would appreciate your
input into this thread.

Thanks again, til next time!
Fxs

[fxsurfer]

It is time to position for the next wave. After a whippy day (which wave 4's usually are) we have settled down now and can see by the chart below that positioning for the next wave down is under way.

Wave v of large 3 has started with minute waves i and ii (green) formed. Now we look for 1.1940 to hold and for the trend line to break which will give our first short signal. A break of 1940 would not negate the count but if eur/usd were to close over 1.1955 then a re-count would be necessary. I am looking at short entries from 1.1940-1.1930 with stops at 1.1960. Adding size only after trend line breaks. Risk/reward is 30pips/100 pips(+) as per analysis of wave target so >3/1.

[idejan]

HI FXsurfer,

waves could overlap with highly leveraged markets. And there is a special case usualy at the end of wave, when the market has gone too far too fast, wave 5 could develop as Ending Diagonal which is a special beacause the motive waves are developing in 3 waves pattern so the 5 ED has a 3-3-3-3-3 sequence instead of 5-3-5-3-5 in the normal motive waves.

This is very rear situation. But this occure to me after a a strugle to acept my previous counts as valid.

OK here are my charts even that are not updated whitin last few hours.

[idejan]

I've noticed that the dates row is missing on the picture so the top where the ED starts on the chart is 8 of June

Remeber that this kind of a patterns have 3-3-3-3-3 structure.
So if FXsurfer is right thatn we have a B finished and we are going into final C fo this 5th.
I'll just skip this one

[xtsunami]

idejan,

Nicely done. It looks like from your chart, you are well versed in the traditional schools of elliot wave.

It was this diagonal that I had marked on my chart that has taken me into a long position in the euro....time will tell.

XT

[idejan]

Tnx XT

well not quite that good but tnx.
In fact I was looking at two other different scenarios:
one with 4th finished @ 1.218 (depend on the provider) from 27 Jun
and the other with 4th finished @ 1.229 18 Jun top

However I strongly believe that we are very close to the bottom of this correction.

[idejan]

Well just as I've suspected it bounced from the trend line and now is limited with the 100 EMA which turns flat and with ECB to followI suspect we'll have some north move ahead.

[fxsurfer]

Dejan, excellent work and very nice looking charts.
Update on my work:
Last night US time I entered a short at 1.1929 after a break and retest of the trend line. After price fell enough I entered a protective stop at b.e which was taken while I was sleeping. The practice of entering a pro-stop is fundamental to my trading as you will see during this thread. It served me very well this time as euro spiked beyond my call of a top at 1.1951. Many times my pro-stop gets hit and then price continues in the direction I wanted. I miss pips but preservation of capital is more important and one can always re-enter if the trend is strong.

Today I have entered a short euro at 1.1980 and 1979 and price has moved enough for a pro-stop at b.e+1. I will update this trade as it progresses. This should be final wave 5 down of larger C ... possibilities are that it may be a flat or failed 5 but my target for now remains at new lows in euro (1.1830-1.1790). NFP will be the next mover of this pair.

[fxsurfer]

And here is the daily out look. Pro-stop is now locking in +10 pips at 1.1970.

[idejan]

Hi
If ED count is correct it has changed slightly and now the previous A of the 4th is 3 (se my previous chart) and the recent peak at 1.2040 is 4. Expected 5 in ending diagonals MUST be ZZ and is expected to complete between 1.1885 and 1.1715. Since 5th waves of the ED diagonals almost always exceeds the channel line it is most probably it will go below 1.185/84

At the moment the first leg of this ZZ-ag is about to finish and my guess is we will have another sideways wave B which should not exceed 1.197/98 and I will wait for the NFP to finish this 5th (agree with fxsurfer on this).