MoneyTec 2.0 - Online Forex Traders & Brokers Social Networking Community » Trade Recommendations » Intraday Trade Recommendations

[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[fxsurfer]

Euro is having a hard time breaking this trend line up so raising stops to b.e+1 (1.1996).

[fxsurfer]

Bear,

I agree with your wording !
It also explains why sometimes when say news is usd positive you get a slide in usd, the waves are more powerful imo, except for extreme cases (tragic events etc)

[scottkusf]

Originally Posted by fxsurfer

Euro is having a hard time breaking this trend line up so raising stops to b.e+1 (1.1996).

FX - I am new to Forex. What does "b.e+1" mean?

Thanks!

[fxsurfer]

Stop hit +1, one of the most frustrating days to trade today!

Hi Scot,
It literally means (b.e+1=break.even +1 pip)
A technique used to preserve capital (and give you a consolidatory 1 pip) incase a positive trade turns against you. So in my case my entry was at 1.1995 and then trade starts to retrace so I lock in 1pip profit by placing a stop at 1.1996.

Hope this helps
Fxs

[psperos]

Originally Posted by fxsurfer

Stop hit +1, one of the most frustrating days to trade today!

Hi Scot,
It literally means (b.e+1=break.even +1 pip)
A technique used to preserve capital (and give you a consolidatory 1 pip) incase a positive trade turns against you. So in my case my entry was at 1.1995 and then trade starts to retrace so I lock in 1pip profit by placing a stop at 1.1996.

Hope this helps
Fxs

it's too bad your stop was hit, i have a feeling you will be right.

Maybe the better trade is to wait to get short at 2120+ not long here.

[fxsurfer]

Hi Psperos,

Well my original Long entry was stopped by 1 pip (low 1.1995, stop at 1.1996).
It was frustrating as I said above but one thing I learnt in fx is to never let emotions effect your trading, because you may miss out on an excellent trade.

They did it to me this morning on the short (took my stop by 3-4 pips) and if they (the markets) think I didn't learn anything from that well they were wrong! ( )

I entered long again (a little higher) but those are the rules and so we shall play by them. Entries 1.2002 and 1.2004 (Av. 1.2003)

[fxsurfer]

Price is currently 1.2010 down from 1.2035 so need a pro-stop in at 1.2005, b.e+2pips. In hind sight shorts were the pip makers today !

[psperos]

wave counts aside, take a look at this divergence. it has already broken through its trend. It might be a good indicator that price will eventually break this channel. This's what i'm trading off of right now.

Im giving this a little room, my av price is long 1.2004 with stops at 1.1979 and 1.1970.

If we don't close above this channel by 20:00 i may cover and step aside.

[fxsurfer]

Psperos,

Great chart !
Here is the 1hr view of that trend channel, I have never seem a compression like this before right along a trend line.

1.2008 is good support for our positions and hopefully we get a break up (maybe during asian session)

[nula]

Absolutly no sarcasm intended or inferred. I think your comments and charts are great. Keep up the good work

[fxsurfer]

I am starting to doubt the above trend line (1hr chart) will break upwards. I have just updated the daily chart and now think we have one more down leg before any significant move up in euro. I can also say that time wise we may do a downleg leading up to Friday. With Friday being the reversal day using GDP as the catalyst. It is just a hunch (with a little help from fib time cycle) but nothing worth posting except the daily chart.

Levels: 1.1980 Support. If it breaks then we will re-test the lows around 1.1850-1.1900 (I favour this scenario-short bias)

Also watch 1.2050 for the bullish trade, close above is good for longs.

[idejan]

Good job fxsurfer
much better count.
On this scenario I'd only add one small a under your 5 C on the chart, and would set even higher targets for 3th (@ 1.2520-1.3010)
There is also possibility that we have an Impulsive wave in play since the beginning of jan '05 so the count would change to III (instead of 5 C) and IV (instead of i up on 12 jul) then 1 and 2 of Vth down finished 3rd in play.
Just looked on the chart and noticed that this second scenario looks more likely
if 1.187 broke Impulsive count upwards is invalidated.
ID

[fxsurfer]

Hi Dejan,

Thanks for your input again !
I agree with the impulsive wave scenario, it is always in the back of my mind as a possiblity. For now as we are keeping this as a simple EW system we both agree an up move is due.

Just woke up and see we spiked to down to 1.1964.
1.2050 is still strong resistance and I suspect unless we break this level we may do one more spike down. I will update some charts later today.

Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Here is an updated 1hr chart with what I think may occur next few days.

I think we may still need one more low below 1.1950 before we start the huge wave 3 up. Timing as I said yesterday, may be Thursday for the new low point and then going into Friday a strong wave up (over 1.2250 around 1.2450)

Levels are:

1.2050 close over (on 30min chart) for longs, will also mean we have bottomed at todays low 1.1965 and have started new big wave up targetting 1.2350-1.2450

1.1950 break of this will see the final low around 1.1920-1.1880

[scottkusf]

FXsurfer - I am new to forex and really like following your posts. I am curious, what is the news on friday that you see will be negative for the dollar and positive for the Euro?

Thanks and good luck trading!