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[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[fxsurfer]

Update 07 July:
I have closed all my shorts from 79 and 80 at 1.1931 after a 5 wave down on the 30min chart was completed. That was most probably wave 1 of final 5 of larger C down, we now should do a A-B-C up for wave 2 up, reaching possibly Dejan's target of 1.1970-80. Stay tuned.

[xtsunami]

Just can't help but think that the diagonal is playing it self out and time for a move north is at hand. With that in mind, I am taking trades with the bounces to 1.1880-1.1900.

fwiw,

XT

[jbwyme]

I have been researching elliot waves and I have a question: how do you know when a whole new cycle is starting? I mean how would I pick where to start with wave 1?

[jbwyme]

does this look right? this is aud/usd on a weekly chart.

[fxsurfer]

Hello Jbwyme,
Yes your count on the aud/usd weekly chart is correct. The critical point in that chart was that wave B didn't go higher then wave 5 and since that was the case, the count is valid.
Regards fxs

[fxsurfer]

Chart count on eur/usd remains valid approaching NFP. I normally wait till after the volatility settles on NFP days to trade but uncle elliot is telling us one more new low needs to be made on eur/usd (<1.1867).

Where this low will be is not certain as wave 5's can be all sorts of types (flat, failed etc). Personally I would be looking for a spike/hammer along with divergence on 1 hr/4hr/Daily chart to signal a possible bottom and take a long, this may not be today but anything can happen on NFP days.

My target of 1.1830-1.1790 may be also be modest. Lets see how it plays out and where the low of 5 gets to. I am looking for the "meat in the middle" trades and will keep watching for a new opportunity. Stay tuned!

[idejan]

Hi XT
It is quite possible that the 5th could be truncated (failier) on worse than consensus NFP
but any bounce north before the NFP could be very limited and will be just a positioning.
Best
ID
PS
Expectations are for good NFP
but there is Hurricane Dennis...

[idejan]

Originally Posted by jbwyme

does this look right? this is aud/usd on a weekly chart.

Looking at that big time frames is good for very long term market direction and to see a possible major market reversals.
I'm looking at daily chart and then synchronizing with hourly chart.
Best
ID

[xtsunami]

idejan,

Thank you for your thoughts. I am not an elliot purist, more like an e-wave illigetimate child. The chart posted above doesn't take fundamental announcements (nor do I ) into consideration.

My thoughts are based on studies of time and geometric patterns (elliot being a part of that). It will be interesting to see what happens and where price goes. I have been wrong before and will be wrong in the future But, the better part of my position is paid for and this is a low risk venture.

jbwyme,

Your counts look good. But, there is an instance where the b wave can be higher than the top of 5....a running correction. It is seen in very strong trends. With that said, a b wave trade with stop just above/below a 5th wave can be a nice high probability trade.

XT

[idejan]

Hi XT
I was not considering fundamentals my self till recently. Most of the news is just a justification for what the market is already set for. But then It's good for timing to now when and what are the fundamentals.
On the other hand in the certain cirumstances some events could afect the market psychology. Especialy if it acts like a catalyst. If you ask me I think that dollar is set to go down, but at the moment there is still a strong dollar bullish sentiment. So they probably try once again on 1.18
On th other hand price of the oil and much lover than expected US Weekly Crude Oil supplies (dropped heavily by –3.6M barrels vs. –1.6M expected) and oil well above $61 a barrel on Hurricane Dennis fears could be interesting to see todays NY session.
By the way I've mentioned Hurricane Dennis because it has quickly strengthened to a dangerous Category 4 hurricane and looks to threaten Cuba and then the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Hurricane Ivan traveled almost the same path and caused the first oil spike to beyond $55 and was responsible for $13 billion in damage in the US.
Well that's a market mover.
Best
ID

--------
Since no new post I add this here
For me EW is more then just counting waves. If you understand the nature of waves then you'll be able to more clearly see the forces behind the market.

ID

[fxsurfer]

Post NFP here is my chart and count and I have a short euro position at 1.1947 ... stop will be above 1.1955 as I observe price action.

[fxsurfer]

Protective stop at b.e+1 (1.1946) entered. Watching an waiting now .... Always use a protective stop when price permits.

[fxsurfer]

Pro stop hit at 46 ... +1 today and flat until 1.1960 breaks or a reverse down is evident (around 1.1930)

[fxsurfer]

Entered short eur/usd at 1.1979 protective stop in place at 1.1978

[fxsurfer]

Added to my short at 50 ... stop at 65 locking +1