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[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[xtsunami]

I do love this game sometimes....you are short, I am scalping long from 1.1927....

Do have a question though, fxsurfer, can you please comment on your latest count. It is interesting you have a 4 on the move up to 1.1985.

Thanks,

XT

[fxsurfer]

xt, I am counting waves on the 1hr as I see them not necessarily to EW rules as such.
This choppy action probably has it own nonmenclature but I will keep it simple and work with 5 wave counts as they develop.

The 4hr chart shows a possible failed wave 5 and we could be going long euro from here. Scalping is probably a good idea today and pips to be made long and short.

Protective stop now a 50 locking in +16 pips

[xtsunami]

Thanks for the comments, fxsurfer.

XT

[fxsurfer]

Stopped on short for +16. Entered new short eur/usd at 57 stop is at 70.
Fib are working perfectly today. This is a fib entry:

[xtsunami]

.................

[firefly]

FXSURFER

Just like to jump in here to say that I appreciate the work and sharing done here .
I have been looking for an EW thread like this one while I attempt to apply Miner's Dynamic Trading to the Forex world. My EW needs basic training in real time.

I also see you use VT. Do you trade Cable?

Thanks,

firefly

[fxsurfer]

Time for a journal entry and examination of trades since thread was started on Wednesday 6 July 2005, these are my first 3 days of trading and I will normally do a summary every weekend:

Summary of last weeks posted trades:
Trade#1- 100k S @ 1.1929 stopped at b.e (0)
Trade#2- 100k S @ 1.1980 and 100k S @ 1.1979 closed @ 1931 Av. (+48)
Trade#3- 100k S @ 1.1947 pro-stopped @ 1946 (+1)
Trade#4- 100k S @ 1.1979 and 100k S @ 50 Av.=200k S @ 65 pro-stopped @ 1950 (+15)
Trade#5- 100k S @ 1.1957 holding over weekend stop moved to 84 before close of trading Friday.

One of my rules is to not hold any positions over the weekend. I broke this rule on Friday and if I pay for it then this will be a 27 pip or $270 lesson I will keep reminding myself about. I'll be back later Sunday with some chart updates.
Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Sunday pre-opening update:

From Friday's close it is a little hard to work out where we are going Monday. The chart and EW counts are biased bullish with a potential wave iii (3) in the making but I am scratching my head as to why Friday closed half way through a wave 3 (not logical). Only thoughts I have is that we range trade Modany and so fibs/support and resistance levels (cams/pivots) will be the strategy to follow. I will update as soon as I get any new indication of where we are at.

PS: There is a saying (correct me if I'm wrong) that says: paraphrasing...

If you can't work out the wave you are in then it is most probably a wave 4.

[fxsurfer]

Hi firefly and welcome,
No I don't trade cable, just concentrating on 1 pair (eur/usd) at the moment although I did trade cable last year. I keep a daily EW count on cable just out of interest and for some friends.

Visual Trader has the best free charting package imo. I am experimenting with the gann fan on VT and so far results have been pretty good .... VT also has a great pivot point plug in called "alternate pivot points" which I use on my 15 min charts.

Cheers
Fxs

PS: Short from Friday at 1.1957 is still in play, need to see a close (on 15min candle) below 1945 to add to short, stop remains at 84-85 area until I can get a protective stop in.

[xtsunami]

There is a saying (correct me if I'm wrong) that says: paraphrasing...

I have heard this from someone, but who it was had faded from my memory....but I have found that if you are having difficutly labeling a series of movements, you are usually in the a-b-c's of a particular degree of waves which may or may not be the fourth of a higher degree.

As for your latested snapshot....you may want to reconsider your v wave (this may actually be the b wave of 4).

XT

[xtsunami]

Though pulled only from the context of your post, another interpretation:

[fxsurfer]

Update July 11th midday CET:

XT, thanks once again for the great analysis and heads up, keep em coming !

Overnight my stop on the short was taken out at 1.1985 (-28pips). The bullish euro this a.m has at least one more wave up to go for a 5(or v) as per the 30min chart posted below. Now the question is, is this 5 of a new 1 or just a corrective 5 up. The strength suggests we may be may be in a new large 1/5 but watch for a bull trap. Super imposed on the 30 min chart below are the 2 wolfe waves still in progress. If we get a break of 1.2040 then euro bull wave would be in otherwise a failed 5 here would be very bearish for euro.

We will look for price action next day or so to see if this is so and try to catch the wave 3. Support at 1.1950 would have to hold on any retrace and this wave 5 would have to take out the high of 1.2040 for bullish stance to continue. Trading is on hold until we get a clearer picture. Stay tuned a very nice trade is approaching.

[fxsurfer]

High so far in this run up is at 1.2085. Euro support zones come into play now. If this is the real thing (new bull run in euro), then watch which support zones hold, the farther down the less likely this thing will keep running .... 1.2030-2040 is the first support zone and ultimately 1.1950 needs to hold.

Entered short eur.usd at 2070 and 2064 stops and reverse above 2095 with target to 2150.

This should be wave 2 down .... As soon as trade is 15 pips positive I will enter a pro-stop at 2066 (b.e+1).

[fxsurfer]

Only thing that worries me about the labelling in the previous post is that there is no divergence. Wave 5 tops usually exhibit some divergence at least on the 15 min t.f which there is none this time. If 2085 is taken out then this is the alternative count: Target for 5 is 1.2105-2120:

[xtsunami]

Target is the black box....close, but not quite there.

XT