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[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[EvenTually]

WTH
This was some really crazy price action.
Swooped my trades in both directions to stop loss.
All I can say is Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

and again
Grrrrrrrrr
ET

[EvenTually]

Did we top?
Fxs'how can you tell if we have topped or bottomed?

EvenTually

[EvenTually]

What are the first targets down?
1.2690, 1.2665 and 1.2640?
Im counting the entire a b c up for Fib levels.

ET

[rufffen]

Well, looks like a simple three drives to the top on Cable to me, EURO about topped out there, but might try once again, USDX can loose another 70 cents as we speak, so might be a fakeout.

BTW, just read some posts here, I think everyone should at least say thank you to fxsurfer, cause he provides his charts for free well ahead in time.

If you got a problem with surfer/EW might just chill elsewhere or start your own thread.

[joeblack]

yeah!!!

thx to surf and u too ruffen. It's great to have two of u in moneytec forum.

Keep the good work.

[remikes]

And second that!! Thanks are long overdue. :-)

[EvenTually]

Originally Posted by rufffen

Well, looks like a simple three drives to the top on Cable to me, EURO about topped out there, but might try once again, USDX can loose another 70 cents as we speak, so might be a fakeout.

BTW, just read some posts here, I think everyone should at least say thank you to fxsurfer, cause he provides his charts for free well ahead in time.

If you got a problem with surfer/EW might just chill elsewhere or start your own thread.

ruffen....

I am as far from complaining about surfer as can be.
If anything I have alot to learn from him and some other guys here about EW.
Nevertheless it is ok to spit at the sidewalk here and there when you lose a bunch of pips to uncommon price action.

With that said you can relax, no hostillity here.

All things happen
EvenTually

[fxsurfer]

Hey ET, lol at the question ! First learn to control your emotions when trading, then all the rest will take care of it self !

Originally Posted by EvenTually

Did we top?
Fxs'how can you tell if we have topped or bottomed?
EvenTually

I don't know and nobody knows if we have topped .. Use money and trade management ... get in at your entry levels then at +15 pips take some pips off the table and stop to break even +1 ... Dont worry if it stops you, get back in higher. If you got in at 1.2770-80 sell zone, excellent work and now stop would be at 1.2769. The 1.2775 target hasn't been printed yet so be aware of that. Just protect your trades and short at the levels I gave. If you want long term .. 1.2810 is a good stop as Joe posted.

I'm watching these time points, next is in 1.5hrs .. there are no EW counts these last few days on the smaller time frames.

Back later
Fxs

[bearprofits]

Surf,

Just a bare brained view, no EW just some fork action, i have some timeing coming together this weekend looking for Euro to complete the Yellow fork tomorrow, with a retest of the green upper median from a bigger weekly fork.

Should be a Great R/R

Not discounting a quick spike to the 88.6 12815ish, but if the view holds looking south for several hundred pips for the next few weeks.

Building a short position here in the Zoo, with the load coming 12775 thru 2815. stops on top 2825/35

Bear

[fxsurfer]

Hi Bear ... good to see you back again

I studied your chart and good work, buddy !

Well still no EW action on the smaller t.f's (5min), normally I would put some EW in between those time points I have. Here is just an update on how it turned out, I missed 2750 target all it got to was 2735, anyway this was just an exercise during a boring market.

Back start of Asia
Fxs

[EvenTually]

first target of 1.2690 was pierced but it looks like the predicted retracement might be starting...
current lowest point is 1.2683.
Im trying to scalp 15 pips above.
Then back to short.
Fxs,
What do you think?

ET

[EvenTually]

Hey surf,
One more question.
Are we in a double three down?
If so then 2770 was X and we are on A down.
I assumed similar proportions of both threes and tried to draw a scetch.
Tell me what you think.

ET

[fxsurfer]

Update 4hr EW count:

Wave 2 to me looks like it has just finished .. text book a-b-c correction up to our target of 1.2770 (this wave is also known as the suckers wave, dont ask me why but I think it's because the 90% traders think this is the start of a break to new highs)

So now we finally we start the wave 3 (of larger 1), which will last the longest in time and be the most rewarding for those who have been following this thread. This wave is not to be bought ... short rallies as in wave 1 a week or two ago. Pyramid if you know how to otherwise leave your original shorts from the 1.2700's and come back in a few weeks.

Wave 1 was 400 pips so expect this wave to be about 650 pips .. therefore we should get a target of about 1.2120 just for wave 3. But remember it will be 5 waves down and I have the first bounce and target at 1.2377 (yes back to this target )

Off to get some rest .... enjoy the short !
Fxs

[marketwavez]

Yeah .,... Bearprofits

Whoop ! ......... there it is !

Bear ,,,,
i looked at your chart in blue .. and saw the 2 andrew pitchforks
that you drew on the charts

It's intersting to see that both pitchforks on a different angles are showing probable resistabnce levels comming together !

The pink one and the yellow one ........

Good work pointing that out...... Really !

Here's my Fibonacci view of things .....

Price has clearly in this massive Channel Formation now,between 2470 - 2974

and has rallied into a 618% tretracement line ..... Resistance is futile !

[sue vesta]

Originally Posted by fxsurfer

Update 4hr EW count:

Wave 2 to me looks like it has just finished .. text book a-b-c correction up to our target of 1.2770 (this wave is also known as the suckers wave, dont ask me why but I think it's because the 90% traders think this is the start of a break to new highs)

Off to get some rest .... enjoy the short !
Fxs

Surf - you are not to call Mick Mason a sucker - lol!!

I'll believe the larger Wave 2 has ended once US GDP is out of the way in the morning!! If - in the ABC correction that is Wave 2 - Wave C is supposed to equal Wave A - and A was 250 pips long and took 5 days to complete - and C started at 1.2555 and has gone 220 pips in 1 day - I'm wondering if this retracement is Wave 4 of C - and the curtain may fall on Monday.

Sue