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[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[zunis-myst]

To be serious here, Mick, the lesson for his book was this: low leverage now, much more attention to the fundamental coherences, and cost averaging with multiple entries. I am more relaxed now. This mornings' Euro reverse long doesn't hurt me anymore - ok, I know when to execute my exit.

You're right, we.. no, you! on your islands you have the Rufous-tailed Scrub-Robin

[fxsurfer]

A spike on the usd/chf just stopped me out at 1.2300 (+13 pips) ... too bad as it has now gone back to 1.2335bid, no more swissy trades.

I managed to get another short in the euro @ 1.2777 as per my bias in the last post above. Now 2 lots short from 1.2767 and 1.2777.

This is going to be a choppy time until ECB, I'd say ... I still don't want to scalp as I think a larger fall is close .. only a break over 1.2785 would invalidate my scenario.

Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Today is going to be choppy .. I will leave a stop at 1.2772 (b.e) and going out for a few hours. If stopped well there will be another trade tomorrow

Price is now 1.2756/58 off a low of 1.2732/34.

Back in a few hours
Fxs

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by Pipmaster

You don't give away too much Mick, although I would like to understand your simple system. Holding shorts and longs at the same time will obviously give you winners, but it will also be negated by the losers. Your position would be your bias (eg, more shorts than longs therefore bias short). So I understand that holding onto these trades may eventually turn losers into winners, given the right type of market, but where would you put your stops? I would assume out of the range? below 1.25 would be your long stops and above 1.3 your short stops? Also, what influences your view?

Please explain

Regards

Pip

Hi Pip

I'm not sure this is really the right place to go into great detail but I hope no-one will mind a brief reply......

I missed the message in BWILC but zunis-myst has summed up this simple strategy with "low leverage now, much more attention to the fundamental coherences, and cost averaging with multiple entries".

The majority of trades are wins, and all the yield positive trades (ie short Eur/Usd or long Usd/Jpy) are wins. The losers are a drop in the ocean in comparison.

In this kind of market it's pretty much impossible to pick exact entry and target levels, it's a fundamentally driven market, technical levels mean very little. The only way to trade a market like this (and make money) is to trade the range with small averaged positions and loose stops....in my opinion.

I respect traders like fxsurfer for their analysis but it doesn't work in these thin and volatile conditions, I don't think fxs would disagree, spikes are taking him out of potentially profitable trades and the constant back and forth is costing spread.

What influences my view? Fundamentals, sentiment, overdone moves, and then I would usually apply simple Fibonacci to the trend, none of which will work in a ranging market where dollar sentiment is so volatile as it is now.

The only other choice is to stand aside until things settle, not an option for me as I'm an insatiable forex addict

I hope none of that sounded patronising, it wasn't meant to be if it did.


Mick

[rufffen]

wow mick, deep thinking, I think you should write a book.

Man I thought fellas in UK were more open-minded since yous got spreadbetting there.

Now please show me one spreadbetter whos making money on fundumentals, Id appriciate that.

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by rufffen

wow mick, deep thinking, I think you should write a book.

Man I thought fellas in UK were more open-minded since yous got spreadbetting there.

Now please show me one spreadbetter whos making money on fundumentals, Id appriciate that.

Not many spreadbetters on this forum I don't think, but if you find one then ask him

Open-minded about what exactly, you think I'm narrow minded? I'm focused on making money when I trade, that's all, if that's narrow minded then I guess I'm narrow minded, I can live with that...


Mick

[popoola]

I am a spreadbetter. My hands are up in the air. I trade basically on technicals but the fundamentals are at the back of my mind at all times. For me the fundamentals shape the long term picture while the technicals are best for shorter timeframes and particular entrries and exits.

[Pipmaster]

I spreadbet also. I don't see a big difference between this and normal trading (CMC platforms are almost identical). The obvious difference being that I will place a monetary value per point, at least £1, whereas you guys trade in lots. The other difference being that I will not pay tax on any profits, as it is considered gambling.

Have I missed something?

[MickMason]

There you go ruff, two to choose from

[Phillip]

long "EUR" @ 2760 closed @ 2806....now short "EUR" 2806

[Mafioso]

Originally Posted by Phillip

long "EUR" @ 2760 closed @ 2806....now short "EUR" 2806

Have u missed ur way way to ur thread or what!!!!

[fxsurfer]

Hi everyone,

Back again and I see the last try at short was stopped at b.e ... thats no problem we can now get in short at a better price. Why ?

Because this is a corrective wave and we want to catch the next impulsive move down .. I had a 2810 target from days back but one can only try to short and protect yourself until the actual turn happens, as we are doing.

Next Short zone is 1.2810-20 .... stop is 1.2832 bid (initial risk 22 pips max)

Lets see how this 3rd attempt goes ... this should be the top, if not then I am afraid euro is going to shoot up here quite a lot.

Fxs

PS: I am short 1 lot from 1.2811 and 1 lot from 1.2815 (current price 1.2816/18)

[iceburg500]

Originally Posted by Mafioso

Have u missed ur way way to ur thread or what!!!!

hahahaha, glad to see that Im not the only one who thinks theres a few people here that need to have there own thread in their enthusiams to post crap every 5 minutes.

[marketwavez]

ATTENTION TO ALL..........

I have just found this Radio interview with Jamie Johnson


He is the step-son of Robert Miner and was trained
Elliott Waves by Mr. Miner himself .........

Please go to the site and Listen to this interview
He really sounds like he knows what is talking about .

He is heavy on the Fibonacci - and incorporates his trades
with Risk to Reward and Money Management...,...

This Radio interview is about half hour long ......

He is only talking about Elliott Waves and use of it in trading .

Here's the link
http://investing-software.com/commen...html?next=1912


This is a Great Interview -

- Just wanted to share it with all the viewers in here .....
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - -

[MickMason]

Originally Posted by Catalonia

Hi, Mick!!

A very nice post. But, you know, you will have "the Mother of all Shorts" some day. And then, You'll have posts here saying: "We said that 20 years ago".

CAT

lol

Another month and lots more darts, but you've got to admire their perseverance and patience in the face of adversity. After 4 months trying to pick the top the 'Big Mama' is going to have to be huge to make it worthwhile, like 0.8000 or something