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[fxsurfer]

I am going to start a new thread with my simple Elliot Wave trading system.
I am doing this so as not to clog up other threads and also as a personal diary where I can keep track of my charts, analysis and trades as I go. EW trading incorporates many other TA techniques such as trend lines, s+r levels, fib. levels, divergence etc etc. When trading EW, what I am looking for are the major waves, to trade these and to get about 50% of these moves (anywhere between 50-150 pips). As the thread progresses I will add my thoughts and the way I trade the waves so lets me begin.
PS: I am by no means an expert in EW's and am learning as I go, I have been doing this for 6 months and know that I have lots more to learn and that this thread would be a good way to continue advancing. Also my notation is not to EW standards and I hope to improve this as I go.

Entry#1 4Hr chart
End of european trading July 6.
Euro is in minute wave iv up of the larger 3 down. The previous wave iii bottom was at 1.1867 and wave iv has now corrected to 1951 but not cofirming this as the top yet a break below 1.1890 would confirm this wave iv and the start of wave v down to a target of 1.1830. Wave 4's are messy affairs at times and trade these only if you are a good scalper. Levels to watch are 1.1955 and 1.1900. In between here for scalpers only. Long above close of 1.1980 and short on close below 1.1890.
See Daily chart below and 4 hr chart in the next entry

[fxsurfer]

Hi xt, thanks for adding your charts and analysis. I like your strategy of using ellipses and geometry in charting. I think ying fang has taken a short with limit at 1921 target. He has another thread you may wish to visit for more accurate information.

Here is my early morning euro session update July 14th:

Asia session saw euro slowly descend to reach a low at 1.2056 (so far). Formation is a typical descending wedge and this pattern usually breaks up and big. Divergence is huge and should support an up move here. The euro managed to breach 1.2063 (50% fib level) of 1.1872-1.2255 range but was stopped at strong support at 1.2050-2055.
Shorts are good on close below 1.2050 any t.f
Long if euro spikes 1.2050 and reverses up.

My entries: Long eur/usd 50K at 1.2065 will add on breach of 1.2090 while stop is at 1.2055. Will consider short if 1.2050 is broken and price action at that time.

Have a good day
Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Price currently 1.2073 @ 07:23 NYT ... Protective stop in at b.e 1.2065 so no risk. Price is waiting for US data at 8:30 NYT. Back then.
Adding on a close over 1.2090 and shorting on break of 1.2050
Cheers all

[fxsurfer]

Stopped at b.e ... waiting til after news for a pattern to form ...

[fxsurfer]

Entered Long euro 150K at 1.2085 and 1.2086
Seems like 1.2050 was very good support as per charts above.
Protective Stop entered at b.e +1 - 1.2087.
Lets see if this was wave 4 and going to form a new high for wave 5 ... target 1.2350. Also options in currencies expire tomorrow so could see a squeeze one way or the other which may mean volatile trading. Commercials are heavily long euro fx so if squeeze were to occur it would be up.

Lesson .. the long I had from 1.2065 was stopped at b.e. My method is to always place a protective stop as soon as possible and so I have no regrets this was taken out. As I said earlier in the thread one can always get back in.

Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Time for a daily update: July 14th 2005

The dailies are so slow that once a week is probably good enough to post a chart unless some major moves occur or major levels are broken. Tomorrow is options expirey on currencies, just something i try to watch to see how it may effect the euro. Just for the record commercials are extremely long compared to small and spec traders. The biggest difference in positions this year.

We have a possible new wave 5 up forming but since it is early yet not many signals have confirmed this. The main wave possibly showing a new sequence up is the one marked i (red) which finished at 1.2255 and got very close to the black 4. I would've expected the red ii to go down to at least 1.2000 and it still may. 1.2050 holding as strong support.
Stay tuned
Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Stop hit at 2087 +1 ...

[sirch985]

Nice work fx , nice!


sirch

[fxsurfer]

Update 12:30 pm, CET:

Woke up pretty late today, was scalping asian session, anyway here goes:
The 4hr chart is a little confusing but this is what I see -

Wave 4 has just finished an a-b and is now headed towards the 1.2000 level as I mentioned in the commentary on the daily chart. The wave 4 targets are 1.2015 or as low as 1.1950 according to meastro fibonacci.

Price currently 1.2085:
Levels-
Break above 1.2115 go Long
Break below 1.2075 Short but watch the 1.2050 level as it is strong support, better short is break on 1.2050

Scalp in between these levels if you have to trade, it is no mans land.

[fxsurfer]

Updated 1hr chart:

This shows how EW counting uses other TA techniques to analyse and/or confirm the count. The counting gives you confidence in entering trades and possible target levels.

[Fire580]

Just had to thank you for sharing your trading with us - this is my favorite thread - I check it all day long for new entries, I have touched on Elliot several times in the past few years (but your style is finally making it clearer to me) - Please keep up the good work..... thanks again
Oh yea - you mention scalping from time to time - would you be willing to share your scalping methods?

[fxsurfer]

Here is an update: eur/usd at 1.2030

Immediate support at 1.2020 strong then 2015-2000.

4hr chart shows the 4 low somewhere between 1.2020 and 1.980 .....
Next wave is up and should break the recent highs at 1.2255.

Area between 1.2020 and 1.2045 no mans land ......

Long (cover shorts) on break of 1.2045 (close 15 min chart) and
short (stay in shorts) on break of 1.2015 targeting 1.1980

Thanks for kind words Fire580 !

[fxsurfer]

Here is my the latest update:

1.2020 proved to be very good resistance and after the close over 1.2045 (15min t.f), I was looking for long entries. A 123 pattern gave me my final entry at 1.2033 and price took off right after that.

Long entries from 2045, 2043 and 2033 Average 1.2040 stop 1.2020

A close over 1.2060 would confirm this upwave has started and a break below 1.2020 that we go to test 1.1980.

At 1.2060 I will enter a stop at b.e.

Regards
Fxs

[bearprofits]

fxsurfer,

Have been watching your thread, keep up the good work!

Here's my Bare (Bear) Brained View of Euro over the next few days.

Good Trades!

Bear

[fxsurfer]

Trading summary for week July 11-15:

Trade#1 S 100K @ 1.1957 stopped @ 1.1985 (-28)
Trade#2 S 100K @ 1.2067 pro-stop @ 1.2066 (+1)
Trade#3 L 100K @ 1.2064 take profit @ 1.2137 (+73)
Trade#4 S 150K @ 1.2191 Stopped @ 1.2220 (-29)
Trade#5 S 150K @ 1.2242 take profit @ 1.2196 (+46)
Trade#6 L 150K @ 1.2186 stopped @ 1.2165 (-21)
Trade#7 L 50K @ 1.2118 stopped @1.2100 (-18)
Trade#8 S 100K @ 1.2100 take profit @ 1.2079 (+21)
Trade#9 L 50K @ 1.2065 stopped @ 1.2065 (0)
Trade#10 L 150K @ 1.2086 pro-stop @ 1.2087 (+1)
Trade#11 L 150K @ 1.2040 Carried over into next week stop @ 1.2019

Total Pips (+46)

Broke my weekend rule again last week. I didn't have much choice as I was away from the computer before closing when price was safely above 1.2060.
I also broke my "b.e rule ASAP" as I didn't place a pro-stop before leaving for the day, as I said I would at 1.2060. When I did finally come back, I saw price had closed week at 1.2032 (-8).

Long is still active from an average of 1.2040 (stop at 1.2019). Be back later Sunday night to see how things turn out and with some new charts.

Cheers
Fxs

[fxsurfer]

Nothing has really changed much since Friday, chart wise.
Still looking for support at 1.2015-1.2020 to hold.
Close below 1.2015 targets are 1.1980 and 1.1950.
If 1.2015 holds then we go to new highs in eur/usd > 1.2255

I am still positioned long from an average 1.2040 with stop+reverse now at 1.2010.

When price closes above 1.2060(close 15min chart) I will place a stop at b.e+1 (1.2041).