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[fxscalper90]

"Long dollar positions are getting stale. Right now we need more impetus to continue buying dollars," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist with Bank of New York."

I'll eat this guy's heart for a junk food snack in the morning (by trading in the forex market, that is).

Anyone have any views on what the NFP numbers may be?

sKaLpZ

[midastrader]

The CNN poll give NFP numbers more than 200,000. I bet it by sell USD.

[jasperforex]

Historical you get moves of 150 points plus by close of play and the lowest of 100 points so carefully selecting an option strategy and going with it is the safest way of dealing with the thing.
Today is going to be more tricky for the average person since market may choose to focus on average earning should they provide cause, but this may well offer traders a better chance for a even cheaper entry.

[Fatman in the H]

I would suggest a straddle trade, as I do with the major fundies, and I imagine a lot of others do as well??

Set a buy entry order above the market and a sell order below the market, obviously plcing stops due to the enormous volatility and movement at payrolls time.

And let the market decide which entry for you to take

[fxsurfer]

Fatman, would that strategy have worked with Thursday's jobless claims ?

[Fatman in the H]

Surfer, I am not 100% sure, as I did not see the market at the announcement, I was sound asleep.


But say for todays/ tonights non farm payrolls, looking at the GBP.

Look for consolidation for at least 4 hours before an announcement, I only look at MAJOR announcements like the payrolls.
Take the high of the consolidation and set a buy order 10 pips above the high, plus the spread.
Take the low and set a sell order 10 pips below the low.

Set your stops to however you set your stops and then see what happens.

When taken in one direction, cancel the order for the other direction.

Does not always work, but goes nicely on the real big fundies, like payrolls, ineterest rates etc. Last months interest rates announcement was very nice for a quick 100 - 150 pips depending on when you exited.

[fxscalper90]

Originally Posted by midastrader

The CNN poll give NFP numbers more than 200,000. I bet it by sell USD.

Good call! Did you make any profit?

For a 90-pip EUR/USD spike I was only able to eek out 38 points on a long trade.

fx

[fxscalper90]

Originally Posted by Fatman in the H

I would suggest a straddle trade, as I do with the major fundies, and I imagine a lot of others do as well??

Set a buy entry order above the market and a sell order below the market, obviously plcing stops due to the enormous volatility and movement at payrolls time.

And let the market decide which entry for you to take

Fatman, that's actually not a half-bad strategy. It takes balls though.

fx

[fxscalper90]

My Xmas tree trade! Who said money doesn't grow on trees.

Red triangles = shorts entered.
Green triangles = shorts closed.

Total pips profit = 59 points on NFP announcement.

How'd everyone else do?

Man, it just broke 1.2900 - it's really tumblin'!

sKaLpZ

[Fatman in the H]

Originally Posted by fxscalper90

Fatman, that's actually not a half-bad strategy. It takes balls though.

fx

FXscalper,

Yep it does take some balls, but as long as the stops are in place then it can be extremely effective. F_X_C_M does not allow you to perform this type of trade on the major announcements hence why I am no longer with them. G_F_T seem to accept them no worries and they go realy well.

Again having stops in place is critical.

I only trade this way with MAJOR fundies like the rates announcements and the Payrolls etc. And there can be issues if there is a quick move before the announcement and then the announcement sends the market in the reverse direction. I would suggest demo trialling until you have worked out a way that is comfortable for yourself.

Yep I went well tonight, have just closed out a of a short trade on the pound with 63 pips and closed a long trade out earlier for 40 pips. So I am happy and tired as it is 146am in Australia, so I am off to bed.

If you want to ask any more questions feel free, but I am no expert at all.

Cheers

[fxscalper90]

Originally Posted by Fatman in the H

FXscalper,

Yep it does take some balls, but as long as the stops are in place then it can be extremely effective. F_X_C_M does not allow you to perform this type of trade on the major announcements hence why I am no longer with them. G_F_T seem to accept them no worries and they go realy well.

Again having stops in place is critical.

I only trade this way with MAJOR fundies like the rates announcements and the Payrolls etc. And there can be issues if there is a quick move before the announcement and then the announcement sends the market in the reverse direction. I would suggest demo trialling until you have worked out a way that is comfortable for yourself.

Yep I went well tonight, have just closed out a of a short trade on the pound with 63 pips and closed a long trade out earlier for 40 pips. So I am happy and tired as it is 146am in Australia, so I am off to bed.

If you want to ask any more questions feel free, but I am no expert at all.

Cheers

"I would suggest demo trialling until you have worked out a way that is comfortable for yourself."

Nah, I hear yah. I already make these trades in my live account. Sometimes a little hairier variation as well.

You are right - they are close to the ultimate market exposure / high risk trades.

The payoffs can be HUGE within seconds.

I make them without stops though. They proved to be too nerve-racking so I have left off making those type trades for now. I would like to talk to you more about that type trade set-up though.

Well done on your 63 and 40 pips, by the way - Keep up the good work!

fx

[watchdaride]

Fatman ,

I tried staddling a nfp a couple months ago and when the filled my order the slippage was to the extreme of the move.Then the platform was down for 10 minutes or so and I was stuck in the trade. I think the slippage was70 pips and thats with gft. Luckily i got out with only a 25 pip loss. Dont you get major slippage with your broker on spikes?

[fxscalper90]

This is the last time I'll be awing you guys with my total weekly pipage count.

Just this once.

Total pips taken in profit this week: 1750 points. No losses. No "losing trades."

See yah Sunday/Monday.

sKaLpZ

[Fatman in the H]

Originally Posted by watchdaride

Fatman ,

I tried staddling a nfp a couple months ago and when the filled my order the slippage was to the extreme of the move.Then the platform was down for 10 minutes or so and I was stuck in the trade. I think the slippage was70 pips and thats with gft. Luckily i got out with only a 25 pip loss. Dont you get major slippage with your broker on spikes?

No I have been a bit lucky I guess, I have not had a trade with slippage yet. Hopefully it wont happen, but I ALWAYS set stops, so that I am hopefully a bit protected.

I use GFT as well and maybe I have been a bit lucky.

There is a lot of profit to be made very quickly if you get on ok and yep there is always the danger of being stopped real quick or suffering slippage, but take the good with the bad I guess???

[midastrader]

Originally Posted by fxscalper90

Good call! Did you make any profit?

For a 90-pip EUR/USD spike I was only able to eek out 38 points on a long trade.

fx

I gained 54 pips, Sold at 1.2961 and TP at 1.3015.