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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 05:14 AM
Baruch's Avatar Baruch Baruch is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperforex
Historical you get moves of 150 points plus by close of play and the lowest of 100 points so carefully selecting an option strategy and going with it is the safest way of dealing with the thing.
Today is going to be more tricky for the average person since market may choose to focus on average earning should they provide cause, but this may well offer traders a better chance for a even cheaper entry.
Jasper,

Still playing with day-options?
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 05:19 AM
Baruch's Avatar Baruch Baruch is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatman in the H
FXscalper,

Yep it does take some balls, but as long as the stops are in place then it can be extremely effective. F_X_C_M does not allow you to perform this type of trade on the major announcements hence why I am no longer with them. G_F_T seem to accept them no worries and they go realy well.

Again having stops in place is critical.

I only trade this way with MAJOR fundies like the rates announcements and the Payrolls etc. And there can be issues if there is a quick move before the announcement and then the announcement sends the market in the reverse direction. I would suggest demo trialling until you have worked out a way that is comfortable for yourself.

Yep I went well tonight, have just closed out a of a short trade on the pound with 63 pips and closed a long trade out earlier for 40 pips. So I am happy and tired as it is 146am in Australia, so I am off to bed.

If you want to ask any more questions feel free, but I am no expert at all.

Cheers
Seems that GFT delivers a very good service.
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 09:53 AM
jhanley's Avatar jhanley jhanley is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Hi Guys

Please excuse a stupid question from a newbie. But can someone explain why as quoted it takes balls to make this play. It seems real simple to me to put limit orders safely on both sides of the market at 8:29 and just reap the rewards of an inevitable market move either way. Barring slippage and dishonest brokers I don't see this as being very dangerous at all. Just get back out at 8:32

I wanted to play this in my demo this month but unfortunately my CMS VT was down for 4 days. I love this platform but geez why can't they sort out their conncectivity problems.

Thanks in advance for any comments.
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 10:17 AM
leonardb's Avatar leonardb leonardb is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by jhanley

I wanted to play this in my demo this month but unfortunately my CMS VT was down for 4 days. I love this platform but geez why can't they sort out their conncectivity problems.

Thanks in advance for any comments.
hanley,

This wont be the last time CMS will let you down .. there servers are always down at the "right" (<--sarcastic meaning when you really should be trading) time .. their live server may have been up ..

I myself was with CMS, but could no longer tolerate the instability, irresponsibility and carelesness service they offer their clients..

They stand on the same gound over and over about how much more stable their live servers are, but no one is testing strategies and projects under live accounts.. so they were useless to me and didnt seem to care about customer service.

What i would suggest is maybe getting yourself the MT4 package and trade it along side the VT when its down so that you dont completely miss out on trading.

VT is a great platform and no other broker offers it under a stable enviroment, but what are looks worth with no ability to provide anything else to benefit from.
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 10:20 AM
bobnat's Avatar bobnat bobnat is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

George Santanya

Straddling the news is not new. It was a favorite technique until last summer when the brokers got tired of losing on the announcements. That was when they sent out emails telling their customers that orders would not be guaranteed during times of high volatility. If you were to go back and read some of the posts from last year you'll see how many folks got hurt straddling. The brokers have a few tools at their disposal to combat this, mainly not filling orders or filling them when they damn well please. You may have gotten away with it a few times, but making it a part of your trading strategy is foolhardy considering the history.

Nat
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 11:49 AM
watchdaride's Avatar watchdaride watchdaride is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

amen to that Nat . Knowing the mindset of brokers they probably make a newbie get away with it the first time and then screw them the next three times.I just read a transcript from fxcm on fxstreet on a question and answer with fxcm when some one asked the difference between futures and cash and she said (fxcm)they guarenteed stops. These dealers are no different than parasites. Must be very careful of thier statements or they will suck you dry .Remember it is a zero sum game . They only win when you loose.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 12:57 PM
jasperforex's Avatar jasperforex jasperforex is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Baruch
Jasper,

Still playing with day-options?
Always use them for nfp because they always work. These days it's harder to judge the end direction on nfp day and options take that problem away and so you have full confidence in leaving them on unlike a normal fx trade which must follow your strict guidelines.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 01:04 PM
Baruch's Avatar Baruch Baruch is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperforex
Always use them for nfp because they always work.
Sounds good.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 04-02-05, 03:15 PM
Baruch's Avatar Baruch Baruch is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatman in the H
FXscalper,

Yep it does take some balls, but as long as the stops are in place then it can be extremely effective. F_X_C_M does not allow you to perform this type of trade on the major announcements hence why I am no longer with them. G_F_T seem to accept them no worries and they go realy well.

Again having stops in place is critical.

I only trade this way with MAJOR fundies like the rates announcements and the Payrolls etc. And there can be issues if there is a quick move before the announcement and then the announcement sends the market in the reverse direction. I would suggest demo trialling until you have worked out a way that is comfortable for yourself.

Yep I went well tonight, have just closed out a of a short trade on the pound with 63 pips and closed a long trade out earlier for 40 pips. So I am happy and tired as it is 146am in Australia, so I am off to bed.

If you want to ask any more questions feel free, but I am no expert at all.

Cheers
Yes, you can place stops before the big eco news. But I suppose GFT not, like all brokers did in the good, old days, don't have guaranteed stops? So your entry price can be 50 or 100 pips away from your stop?
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-05, 01:25 AM
Baruch's Avatar Baruch Baruch is offline
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Re: Tomorrow's NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperforex
Always use them for nfp because they always work. These days it's harder to judge the end direction on nfp day and options take that problem away and so you have full confidence in leaving them on unlike a normal fx trade which must follow your strict guidelines.
When are you going to use your options method the next time?
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-05, 06:14 AM
jasperforex's Avatar jasperforex jasperforex is offline
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Re: April NFP Numbers

Probably not until the next nfp or fed rate decision. But the main factor is that they need to be twice as cheap as any move that I expect will happen, so it could be sooner. You take each day/situation on it's own merits.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-05, 06:52 AM
Fatman in the H's Avatar Fatman in the H Fatman in the H is offline
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Re: April NFP Numbers

Yes I agree with all previous posts in regards to straddling funies. They are likely to get to you eventually and say "slippage" etc was the reasons. I guess the only way around this problem is to do an entry at market and not set an entry order.


I guess I have been lucky with the fact that I have not yet been caught. One bloke I do know who always trades the NFP and goes well at it uses a similar method of straddling. He sets entries for a long on both the euro and the CHF. As generally they move in opposing directions and therefore if he is taken in on a headfake on the euro, he can catch the move back the other way on the CHF.

I guess there is a lot of money to be made on trading the NFP in such a short space of time that it is very appealing to new traders and the brokers can take advantage.

And yes traders do all seem to be parasites out to make all the money they can for themselves.

F_X_C_M on the NFP stopped out a mateon the GBP, by the market went long, seemed that this broker moved the market back short to below the consolidation level and thereby stopping lots out I would expect, thereby making money for themselves. Then the market went back long again. Reason why this is so dubious is that all the other brokers that I have checked out over the net, do not have this short movement on the payrolls candle.

AAAARRRGGGGHHHH Brokers, 4X is hard enough without them doing this to us.
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-05, 09:07 AM
Baruch's Avatar Baruch Baruch is offline
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Re: April NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperforex
Probably not until the next nfp or fed rate decision. But the main factor is that they need to be twice as cheap as any move that I expect will happen, so it could be sooner. You take each day/situation on it's own merits.
OK, and good luck.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-05, 02:14 PM
Hayek's Avatar Hayek Hayek is offline
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Re: April NFP Numbers

Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperforex
Probably not until the next nfp or fed rate decision. But the main factor is that they need to be twice as cheap as any move that I expect will happen, so it could be sooner. You take each day/situation on it's own merits.
Where do you trade options, jasper?
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 04-04-05, 03:02 PM
jasperforex's Avatar jasperforex jasperforex is offline
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Re: April NFP Numbers

I use IG Index. It's online, easy to use and they deal pretty quick.
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