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[paulcdb]

and was wondering how people think it'll effect the euro in the long term?

[mishak]

Last new members had national referendums last autumn.
They are not joining the Euro zone yet, so no direct impact on EUR/USD.
The influence in future will probably be slightly negative for the Euro, because will add more "turbulence" to European affairs. For example problems in Poland may hit EUR.

That are possible minor negatives. More general perspecspective is the Euro will become the real second global reserve currency and central banks will allocate more share to EUR instead of USD.

[novice]

The new additions (bar the Turkish part of Cyprus) should not be a problem for the EU or the Euro. In fact they may well be quite beneficial by providing a new "frontier" to develop. Also the new members may force reform of the governments of the EU since it would be destructive to extend some of the indulgences (e.g. budget deficit greater than 3%) of the EU to new members.

But if Turkey were admitted it would be very bad for the EU and the Euro.

[malamri]

....or alternatively it could provide a medium term boost to (Western) European Economies. New markets in the east, EU coroporates bottom line boosted by lower costs in the east, supports the stock market and thus the Euro.

[PanMarcepan]

Joining new members in EU will only increase strength of the currency in long term and will benefit both economies.
More countries use Euro more strength it will have.
Let's don't forget the new members will increase only 5% GDP of total Eurozone output. It's not much.

Having a single currency is to the ease trade between the EU members that have adopted the euro. This is likely to be beneficial for all citizens of the euro area, as increases in trade are historically one of the main driving forces of economic growth.
A second effect of the common European currency is that differences in prices - in particular in price levels, will decrease
The differences in prices for example can increase trade between countries and competition.
This will also result in increased competition between companies, which should help to contain inflation and which therefore will be beneficial to consumers.

The American media see EU economy stagnation that is very misleading picture of the real economy (especially unemployment rate)

The difference in economic performance is at least partly a matter of social choice: US citizens enjoy higher incomes because they work much longer hours than, say, French workers, who tend to put more value on spare time. Furthermore, the gap in productivity growth between the US and Europe does not reflect across-the-board differences in economic efficiency.
With today’s exchange rate there is not much difference but long term is still uncertain.

Many west Europeans are worried that accession of fast-growing, low cost economies could create pressure in their countries.
Especially Polish and Czech exports could price local products out of the market and inflow of labor that is half wage compare to the Western Europe.

These fears are groundless and Yesterday’s news!

Foreign trade between Poland and western EU took off long time ago and its ongoing exchange since 1990.
Since 2000 Poland is trading with EU just as much as EU members trading with each other. They now account for about 70% of our exports and this share is among the highest in the region.

Now, Poland.
Poland has pursued a policy of economic liberalization throughout the 1990s and today stands out as a success story among transition economies

Insufficient international knowledge about Poland leads to misunderstanding of real country profile.

In 1990 Poland economy was the fastest growing economy within Euro zone. It slowed down in 1998-2000 and it’s picking up again.
It's not an Ireland speed but it's above any average.

In Q4 2003 GDP in Poland increased by 4.7% y-o-y. It is estimates that in the first quarter of 2004 GDP should increase by at least 5%.
In the whole of 2003 GDP increased by 3.7% y-o-y and its value at current prices was PLN 938.0bn (€ 197.1bn), i.e. €5260 ($6575 USD) per capita.
Purchasing power parity - $10.375
... and look 15 years ago at these numbers...

The problem in Poland is high unemployment rate … but you need to live in Poland to understand why? It is a mater of choice for some to collect unemployment rather taking low pay jobs.
There are many jobs in newspapers. The Social choice is decision not to take a low pay job.
If Poles would have mentality of Americans the unemployment rate would be around 9% with the current economic situation.
I wish...
There is a big difference between eastern Poland and Central and West. The big cities have plenty of opportunities and high pay jobs the same as Western Europe…or America but life expenses are rather high.
Poland infrastructure is compare to Canada (and look at the size difference of those 2 countries)
GDP is 473 Billion compare to Canada 820 Billion.
I compare to Canada because I’m Canadian citizen as well since 1993 and carefully following all the economic changes in both countries. My hobby is to travel hence
I move from place to place every couple years and have more grounded outlook when comparing statistics with the real economic situation. I’m not even sure if the numbers
are calculated the same in Europe and American land (especially economic NO)


Most of the sources have old, not updated statistics about Poland!
Country Profile: Poland: (Yesterday News, sample how behind in numbers they are)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/pl.html


Kind Regards,
Pan