Forex Trading = Gambling

MoneyTec Forums General Trading Forum Forex Trading = Gambling

This topic contains 59 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by  FXGuru 2 months, 3 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 60 total)
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  • #570

    metal
    • 0

    Lets consider the example of EUR/USD today.

    All indicators and analysis were pointing towards EUR/USD hiting 1.1900 today. And then out of the blue came an Asian CB and a German name raising it back to 1.2000.

    Now what kind of technical analysis will you apply to that?

    regards and happy trading
    Metal

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    #571

    birdjaguar
    • 0

    EUR/USD is in a conflicting price area but that doesn’t make it gambling. 1.1950-1.1980 is major support. This support is more likely to hold after oversold conditions. Bigger players may be buying the support rather than pushing the downtrend, particularly with the Italian economy improving and the German political situation improving. You must open your mind if you want to do this. You must set up like the casino rather than the casino customer. I recommend that you return to a demo account until you can develop an edge. Don’t stress yourself about it. Happy trading.

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    #572

    metal
    • 0

    I knew the broker’s employees will come up in defence of fx.

    As matter of fact, you can always find some indicators to prove your point after the market action.

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    #573

    ForexWizard
    • 0

    Nimble is the name of the game (war planners will tell you this). You have a short bias as you start your trading day but as soon as the first fire is shot you need to be able to adapt. If the trend is euro 1.2000 then trade accordingly.

    Good trades!

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    #574

    forexhr
    • 0

    Oversold 30min, H1, H2 charts. Clear bullish divergence on 60min chart with double bottom on 15min (30min…) chart confirmed at 1.1985 close. I made 50 pips from that scenario.

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    #575

    graemenash
    • 0

    I’d apply the clear bullish regular divergence that existed on every timeframe from 1min up to 4hr, at S1 daily pivot support level. Price was miles outside the lower 60 bollinger band on the 5min chart, and with a divergence playing out entirely outside the band, a snap back up off that pivot was almost inevitable. It was also at a confluence of bollinger bands on the 30min chart with 10,20,40 and 60 period bands all in the same spot.

    With the bullish signals on the oversold longer timeframe charts it was always going to be a decent-sized up-move. Then once the trendline broke it turned into a runner…

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    #576

    metal
    • 0

    Adapt to what?

    Losing….

    There is no guarantee the market will not turn back.

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    #577

    birdjaguar
    • 0

    Just for the record, I am not a broker employee. I was just trying to help. The support levels I was using were 1.1980, then 1.1860. So, 1.1900 was not factored into my analysis except that banks often buy/sell at each .0050 level such as 1.1950 and 1.1900. Still 1.1900 did not make it into my analysis. I was using 1.1950-1.1980 and 1.1850-1.1860. Anyone else care to comment on support levels for EUR/USD?

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    #578

    metal
    • 0

    As I said, its easy to make some technical indicator fit the previous market data once the market action has happened causing you to lose.

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    #579

    birdjaguar
    • 0

    You can only do analysis on past data. Please don’t shoot down the people that are trying to help you. Look at your price charts. You are likely to find that the mid-term significant support and resistance levels are currently 1.1980 and 1.2180. The EUR/USD price is currently bid at 1.2038 so it is in between these levels, therefore this information is based on past data but it is future oriented.

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    #580

    metal
    • 0

    Did this analysis work when prices fell to almost 1.1955 from near 1.2100?
    Applying your analysis, one would probably be going long at around 1.2015 with stop at around 1.1975. (Just a scenario according to your analysis).

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    #581

    metal
    • 0

    Whats the point in analysing past data when its not able to predict future data?
    (No offence)

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    #582

    graemenash
    • 0

    I assume you’re talking about yesterday. Well, if I traded EURUSD I probably would have gone long at about 1.2015, and a nice trade it would have been too since it bounced up 30 pips…

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    #583

    birdjaguar
    • 0

    Metal, it is all about statistical analysis. The casino cannot predict the future, but they make money consistently. Have you read any good material on developing a statistical edge? It is not unique to casinos or forex. Meanwhile, one trade idea may be to buy 1.1980 with a stop below 1.1950 and sell 1.2180 with a stop above 1.2210. This is just simple support and resistance. You don’t need to be able to predict the future. You just need to have a statistical edge. Depending on your strategy, your winners need to be 2 to 3 times your losers. (i.e. -.0025, -.0025, -.0025, +.0100) You can stay afloat with just 25% winners. You need more than support and resistance in your analysis. I was just giving you a simple explanation.

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    #584

    graemenash
    • 0

    It’s also easy to blame everything but yourself when you’re wrong. I know because I’ve been there (haven’t we all at some point?! )

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