Elliott the Neely way

MoneyTec Forums Trading Strategies Elliott the Neely way

This topic contains 32 replies, has 2 voices, and was last updated by  Isk 1 year, 7 months ago.

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  • #788

    EvenTually
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    let’s discuss elliot waves

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    #789

    EvenTually
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    Hmm,

    Science takes time. This particular science took me more then 5 hours just to flag all the structure labels to the monowaves and monowave-groups.

    Nevertheless,
    My initial flagging is as follows:

    Wave# Pips Rule# Structure tabs
    M0 22 (no rule as count started at M1)
    M1 28 R5a :F3
    M2 28 R4b,i :F3/ :C3/ :SL3
    Mg3 26 R6b :5/S5
    Mg4 65 R3a :S5
    Mg5 42 R5b :F3/ b:C3/ x:C3 (x:C3?)
    M6 57 R5a :F3/ :5 (may be wave a of flat with complex b-wave
    OR wave 3 of 5<SUP>th</SUP> wave failure impulse)
    Mg7 59 R5a :L5/ (:C3)
    Mg8 84 R5a :L5 (probably a flat correction)
    Mg9 86 R5a :5/ :S5/ :F3 (may be a part of a flat which concludes
    A larger pattern)
    Mg10 94 R1b :5
    M11 18 R6d no info
    M12 46 R2b :5/ :S5
    M13 19 (not read yet) (x:C3?)

    For those of you who are wondering what all the numbers are.<O></O>
    It is the beginning of a complex deciphering of market waves, as instructed in Glenn’s book: Mastering Elliott Wave.<O></O>
    <O></O>
    Tomorrow I hope to start eliminating unnecessary structure tabs.<O></O>
    All the best,<O></O>
    EvenTually<O></O>

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    #790

    EvenTually
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    A few changes:

    Mg4 is rule 3b and not 3a like I first thought.
    M13 is rule 6c and gets the tab :F3 after (x:C3?)
    Mg14 is rule 4bii and gets :C3/(:sL3)

    Also I attached a more comfortable chart with tabs at the end of each monowave.

    Now I need to figure out how to eliminate all the unnaccary tabs and start identifying simple patterns.

    Happy weekend,
    ET

    {Edit note} Chart removed to make room
    All the charts to this point are made wrongly and do not corresponde with NEoWave wave-chart rules

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    #791

    Wallace
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    EvenTually, hope this helps:
    1: you can add text directly to MT charts ?????? ‘A’ on the Menu, second line to enter text
    2: I use MWSnap: http://www.mirekw.com/winfreeware/mwsnap.html for screen capture and use the png file format for charts
    3: using the scan method after markup, display the new scan on your monitor and mwsnap it to retain a small file size; several images can then be uploaded simultaneously

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    #792

    EvenTually
    • 0

    Thanks Wallace.
    Ill try and use that.

    Regarding the chart,
    Since I am just a beginner of Neely’s system it takes me a long time to analyze the market.
    I will revert to a 4hr chart and restart my count with hope I can keep up with the market.

    All the best,
    EvenTually

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    #793

    JR97
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    Looks interesting. Where’s a trade out of all of that though?

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    #794

    modi
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    Hi to everyone,
    here are my today’s analyses:

    Daily Outlook

    EUR/USD

    by Dimo Dimov, technical analyst
    September 18, 2006, 11:58

    The idea that the rise started from 1.2458 is a triple corrective combination which ends with a triangle looks the correct one. A very strong argument in this direction is the fact that wave e of the triangle shown on the chart is also a triangle. The last week??????s fall below 1.2724 is a signal that wave b of B (the triple corrective combination mentioned above) is already over and we are currently in the beginning of wave c of B with potential target 1.2255. Looking at the structure of the said wave c of B, I think that we are in the beginning of wave 3 with minimum requirement for its length 161.8 % the length of wave 1. A fall below 1.2630 will confirm this view. With an eye on this and on the fact that my short position is from a high level, I put an order to add to my position on break of 1.2630. If this is the case I will have a short position with a double of the limit, but with a stop profit. Trading strategy: 04:58 EST
    Short position (3/3 from 1.2830), stop profit ?????? 1.2710, target ?????? 1.2255
    Order for re-entering short on break of 1.2630 (sell stop order at 1.2629), stop loss ?????? 1.2710, target ?????? 1.2225

    This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

    Daily Outlook

    GBP/USD

    by Dimo Dimov, technical analyst
    September 18, 2006, 11:28

    The sell-off started from 1.9070 to 1.8601 looks impulsive on the daily chart however if you see its structure on smaller time frame chart, you can not find any parallel with an impulse. It is in a clear down channel (typical for corrective movements) and there is no extended wave. With an eye on the impossibility to count it as an impulse, I count this movement as a triple corrective combination (triple zigzag) as is shown on the chart. This labeling brings some change for the ending point of wave 3 of the terminal impulse upon the weekly analysis. I think it should be 1.9070 (not 1.9144 as I wrote in the weekly analysis). This automatically put as a starting point of wave 4 1.9070 and the triple zigzag shown on the chart is wave A of 4. We are currently in wave B of 4. I thought on Friday that it is over at 1.8917 however the fall started from this level is not impulsive upon me. This fall couldn??????t make 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 1.8601 so I think that we should see a fall to 1.8720 (61.8 % retracement of 1.8601 ?????? 1.8917 movement) after initial recovery. We should see thereafter one more rise above 1.8917, which should complete the wave B of 4. There is also a possibility the movement started from 1.8917 to be a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) however it is not my working count.
    Trading strategy: 04:28 EST
    The short position (3/3 from 1.8831) was closed at 1.8820 with a profit 33 pips.
    Sell with the whole limit on recovery to 1.8855, stop loss ?????? 1.8925, target ?????? 1.8725

    This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.
    Daily Outlook

    USD/JPY

    by Dimo Dimov, technical analyst
    September 18, 2006, 10:39

    The assumption that the double corrective combination (started from 118.13) could be only wave A of a flat correction proved to be correct. The subsequent rise to 118.09 is wave B and the fall to 117.24 is wave C. The current sharp rise to 118.13 indicated that the said flat correction is probably over and an impulsive movement has started from today??????s low. The confirmation for this view will be a move above 118.13 followed by an acceleration of the rise. The target for the expected wave 3 should be at least 1.618 the length of wave 1. The stop loss of the long position is moved a little below 61.8 % retracement of wave 1.
    Trading strategy: 03:39 EST
    Long position (3/3 from 117.91), move the stop loss from 116.95 to 117.50, target ?????? opened

    This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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    #795

    modi
    • 0

    Just to say that the cable strategy is working as long as the cable is above 1.8725.

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    #796

    modi
    • 0

    Daily Outlook

    EUR/USD

    by Dimo Dimov, technical analyst
    September 20, 2006, 10:04

    My working count suggests that we are currently in wave C of (B). I wrote yesterday that there is uncertainty about its nature however today the things become clearer. My current opinion is that wave B of (C) is corrective in nature as is shown on the chart. I count the fall started from 1.2828 as a zigzag with wave b of it developing as a triangle. With an eye on this I expect a new fall of the euro in wave c of this zigzag with potential target the zone between 1.2595 and 1.2565. We should see thereafter a recovery of at least 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 1.2828 (beginning of wave B of (C). Looking at the bigger picture, the leading scenario becomes the idea for a multi week triangle and in this case the euro should stay above 1.2458
    Trading strategy:
    Short position (3/3 from 1.2670), stop loss ?????? 1.2730, target ?????? 1.2570

    This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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    #797

    modi
    • 0

    Daily Outlook

    GBP/USD

    by Dimo Dimov, technical analyst
    September 20, 2006, 10:45

    The triple zigzag shown on the chart is wave (A) of 4. We are currently in wave (B) of 4. I thought last week that is over at 1.8717 but the subsequent fall is not impulsive i.e. wave (B) of 4 is not over yet. The fall started from 1.8917 couldn??????t make 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 1.8601 so we should see a fall to minimum 1.8720 (61.8 % retracement of the movement 1.8601 ?????? 1.8917). One more rise above 1.8917 should follow thereafter to complete wave (B) of 4.
    Trading strategy: 03:45 EST
    Short position (3/3 from 1.8880), stop profit ?????? 1.8860, target ?????? 1.8710

    This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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    #798

    modi
    • 0

    Daily Outlook

    USD/JPY

    by Dimo Dimov, technical analyst
    September 20, 2006, 12:14

    The triangle shown in the weekly analysis finished at 115.56 upon my working count. The rise from there looks impulsive however there is no extended wave so I label it as a double corrective combination. As I do not count the movement started from 115.56 as impulsive one, I looked at it as a possible terminal impulse (ending diagonal). If this is the case the movement after the last week??????s high 118.13 is wave 2 of it. It could finish every moment so I try to enter long. However I have to admit that my confidence in the presented count is still low.
    Trading strategy: 05:14 EST
    Long position (3/3 from 117.32), stop loss ?????? 116.50, target ?????? opened

    This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

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    #799

    EvenTually2
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    Hi everyone.
    Im sorry for the absence.
    Moneytec has decided to postpone my activity until 1st of October.
    I am learning alot meanwhile and will post my conclusions upon retrieval of access to my original account.

    Modi,
    Your sketches are interesting and seem very reliable.
    Thank you for keeping the thread alive.

    I have written to NEoWave insitute (Glenn Neely’s organization).
    They told me they currently have no official thread.
    Perhaps in the future, if all goes well we might have their support.

    Happy weekend to you all.

    EvenTually

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    #800

    EvenTually
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    Finally the carfew was removed…
    I shell now try to find a way to post small-sized files like suggested earlier in the thread.

    A short update:
    In the past weeks I tried reading the 4hr chart which in time went too fast for me. After an exciting email from Mr. Neely himself I understood I should start with the monthly chart.
    Therefor my analysis will start at the monthly chart, luckily we just ended a month-candle.

    May this be an inspiring month for all of us.

    EvenTually

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    #801

    EvenTually
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    First thing first.

    It took me a long time to accept but creating a wave-chart is a must.
    Therefor I will explain the basic steps in constructing such a chart.
    I use MT4, but any information provider will do. from the history center you can export past data to be read by excel.

    After export you will have a chart which has date, hour (if less then daily), high and low data for each candle. Now you need to realize which of the two (high or low) came first. To do so will often require a glence at lower time scales. Create new colomns to hold the 1st and 2nd points for each time period.

    You will soon want to create a graph from all of these points and to do so will require a single colomn containing both 1st and 2nd values in a consecutive serie. I am using a formula to do so which you can also find on the attached excel file:
    =IF(EVEN(ROW())>ROW(),INDIRECT(“i”&TRUNC(ROW()/2+1,0)),INDIRECT(“h”&ROUND(ROW()/2+1,0)))
    it basically takes one value from the “1st” colomn and then one value from the “2nd” colomn

    Please note that the excel file is for daily information, I will post a monthly file later on today.
    If you want to follow with your own count, it will be a good idea to create a wave-chart on your own.

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    #802

    EvenTually
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    The monthly EUR/JPY excel file is attached below.
    I avoided ploting 1st/2nd up until march 2003 which preceeded an important high IMO.
    Like you all know, when dealing with a chart for the first time you should determine an important peak and start around it. These areas will usually provide the begining of new patterns.

    I will discuss the excel graph on the next post.

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