Elliott the Neely way

Finally,

First round took a while, mainly because I had little time.
Anyway here goes.
My initial tests convienced me to start the count from the low of september 2003. This is because the high of august ’03 completed a correction and thus the previous shape ended there instead of the higher point of June ’03.

Attached you can find a doc file containing the Pre-Constructive Rules of logic initial placement.
In the comming days I will try and Isolate each month’s label down to a single option.

Have a nice weekend,
EvenTually

A few more narraowings:
Chrono 1, the :C3 can be removed. :C3 can never start a sequence.
Chrono 9, the :5 can be removed. If :5 is the first in a serie then the market cannot retrace more then 61.8% of it, also after it’s retracement the market should exceed the end of the :5 wave.
Chrono 16, the :S5 need to be erased. for an :S5 to be used, preceeded by an :F3, an :C3 must preceed the :F3 to create a sequence of :C3,:F3,:S5.

Chrono 6, the :C3 presented is an early age of an expending triangle or a terminal Impulse. no :L3 (to create a triangle) is presented in the near future. and a terminal seems rather unlikely. I will color it with light gray to show it is not completely impossible

as for chrono 4 (:s5/:5), the :S5 would seem to complete a flat (requiring removing x:c3 from chrono 2 and :f3 from chrono 3) I intend to check it more thoroughly and get back to it.

wo patterns are easily spotted a Flat and a ZigZag.
for the flat to hold, wave-b must retrace wave-a by 61.8% at least. This is ok.
Wave-c must be at least 38.2% of wave-a. This is ok.
The Flat appears to be of a “Strong B-wave” type (b is between 100-123.6% of a)
For the Zag to hold wave-a should not retrace more then 61.8% of previous impulse pattern. I have not yet identified a previous IM pattern but if such exists which concludes with chrono 8 then wave-a retraces it low enough.
wave-b is at leasat 1% of wave-a.
wave-c goes slightly beyond the end of wave-a.
wave-b is no more then 61.8% of wave-a.
The Zag appears to be of “Normal” type (check definition of relations between wave-a and wave-c)

in the next post I will run tests on the flat to verify its validity.

Fib relations tests:
In the Zag wave-c is very close to 100% of wave-a, this is good.

Pattern confirmation:
Flat.
First problem, wave-c is not completely retraced.
Secondly, the 0-b line is not broken.
These two together signal a question to the validity of this pattern. I will conduct more test.

ZigZag.
0-b line is quickly broken, good.
wave-c is completely retraced faster then it took to form, good.

Alternation:

Flat.
Time is alternated between b to a & c, good.
Price acts the same, this is ok.

Zag.
wave-c alternates in time to a & b, good.
Price is alternated between b to a & c, ok.

The Flat seems to be invalid. I will go next over its tags and check them.
The ZigZag is valid and will be compacted. A base label of :3 will be given after which I will check near waves with Pre-Constructive rule of logic to see if tags need to be edited.

Congratulations.
Our first pattern revealed.

Elliott Waves

one of the truth’s

if you just trade trading wave structures you should only
expect to be right 50% of the time ………..

so be honest with your self

ask the question , can i make money by being right
on halph of time ?

with an honest answre to this question ,
only then you can bulid a strategy .

———————————————————————
If Neely is is not saying this – there is cause for concern !

Accept that you will be wrong 50% with what ever
wave count that you may like !……………….

Heres a look at today’s EURO .. ( Short- Term )

Even

I did not learn Elliott Waves by Pretcher
and i dont know Neely’s Tag Work

and from the looks of things you shoulgd get some automated
software to do these Neely Counts ….

Why beat your self up like this ?
————————————————–

I have learened Eklliott waves ny The writings of Nelson Elliott
and had my training trading futures since 2002 ……

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but i tell you this …..
they all have come to capitalize his fame of the name Ellliott Waves.

the problem why most people fail at Elliott wave is they
dont read about and study the man Nelson Elliott
who created Elliott Waves . and they dont seek out
his work written by his own hand .
—————————————————
and tyhat’s just to begin with

Neslson Elliott taught that
markets move in 3’s 5’s or 7’s and then the correct.

How simple is that to undestand ?
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Neely will not teach this . because he doest know it !

but Pretcher does ……
———————————————————

Pretcher comes close in his teachings , but lacks the understanding
of applying money management to the actuial trade setups .

TRADING IS ABOUT YOUR ABILITY TO MANAGE RISK !
This is first and foremost before you apply anytype
of technical analysis to any kind of chart ………

An nd just as importantly
Elliott Waves is not about having the right wave count

-It’s about being a contrarian ….
– It’s about entering the market before the breakout !

—————————————————–

Now i can contribute here….
but i tell you right now , Elliott Waves are every where !

Do not be prejiduce to to the markets ……..

You know my work – If you have come to appreciate it
remeber, I did not learn Elliott waves trading Forex …

I learned it trading futures and indexes .
These are the same markets that Mr. Nelson Elliott traded
when he observed his findings .

and by the way Mr. Nelson Elliott did not trade Forex either .

You have to train your eye to see the shapes ….
and stay way from wave 4’s .. statistically the end of a wave 4
is the worst place in a wve structure to be looking to enter a market .
This is because it is whe consoldation is likely to occur

The best please to be looking to enter a market is at the
beginning of a wave C . ( so called B wave )
– This ties into what Gann taught by the way .

until next time …

plrease do not bre biased toi looking at vsrious markets ….

Have no favorites – just look for the waves

Dear MW,

I agree with you, totally.
A trader will forever fail until he learns to manage his money right.

I, my friend, am not there yet.
I stopped trading for the moment and I will avoid doing so until I come up with a proper market analysis, there is no point burning my money on learning money management while I don’t have a solid forcasting tool.
The EUR/JPY pair is volatile enough as well as trend-defined enough to hold easily read NeoWaves.
I prefer Mr Neely’s approach as it removes all need for subjectiveness. A pattern is either something or it is not. Abide by the rules and you will decypher the market.

Tommorow I shall return to my study of the monthly chart and in time I hope to find fellow analysts to join me in my efforts of learning this unique approach.

All my best,
EvenTually