Forex Trading = Gambling

This topic has 59 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 4 years, 8 months ago by FXGuru.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:22 pm #585
birdjaguar
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If you haven’t been there, you are a very,very rare individual. For the rest of us mortals, trading can be frustrating; but you must be willing to receive help if you want to improve.
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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:22 pm #586
xtsunami
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Metal,

You may not want to believe it, but none-the-less, past time-price actions have a harmonic relationship to the time-price actions of the future.

My analysis of trades is done well in advance of such time-price levels and I can assure you it has nothing to do with “indicators” being applied after the fact as you make mention.

Perhaps you should get to work and study these markets. It is obvious from your replies, that you have not.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:22 pm #587
ForexWizard
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OK I will explain in detail….

Say you think that euro will hit 1900 today because of your analisys.
You are short at 1970 with a stop at 1990. A few minutes into your day you get stopped out at 1990.

you:
1) short at 1990 with a stop at 2010?
or
2) you take a look at what might be driving the move up and reconsider your analisys?

Lets say you stick to your guns and take a new short at 1990 with stop at 2010. Then 30 minutes later you are stopped out again. Now you are down 40 pips.

you:
1) short at 2010 with a stop at 2030?
or
2) you take a look at what might be driving the move up and reconsider your analisys?

By the time you have lost 60 pips you should think about what your asumptions were and see what the problem was. The market can always turn arround but thats why you cant make broad 24 to 48 hour targets set in stone. You should always aproach the chart with an oppened mind!

IMHO

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:22 pm #588
fxmktlgc
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I think you’ve answered your own question. Apparently you’re using some type of indicators to predict future price levels. Instead, focus primarily on price action and secondarily on indicators that give you “here and now” (not supposedly “predictive”) information on patterns, support/resistance, divergence, etc.

There was an almost textbook double bottom around 1.1950 with many indicators showing divergence–especially on the hourly timeframe, as someone pointed out. This was real-time (not “fitting to past data”) if you look for these sorts of things. I’m not saying it’s always easy to spot them and I still have a lot to learn, but it can be done.

Moreover, even if you used the simplest trend-following indicators, you would’ve been long in the EURUSD well before it hit 1.2000.

I guess what I’m trying to say is this: let the market tell you what it’s doing and react to that, instead of trying to make it fit into your expectations.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:23 pm #589
phildunn
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One more LOSER in group of 90% that don’t want to learn and accept failures in trading

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:23 pm #590
forexhr
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Metal,
I would recommend that you read Trading in The zone By Mark Doglas.
This book is the best book I have read on trading psychology. It helped me allot.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:23 pm #591
FXSniper
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Why try to predict where the market will go? Picking tops and bottoms is hazardous to your account balance…

Let the market take you where it wants to go…

Reversal patterns and continuation patterns exist in all time frames

Text book double bottom/1-2-3 reversal this morning on 5min/15min charts…

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:23 pm #592
metal
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Easier to say it after the price action happened. Thats like saying if I put my money on such and such horse after the race.

And yes, I have studied statistical and non-linear analysis. My masters is in non-linear analysis.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:24 pm #593
honeyeater
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Mark Douglas is explicit in implying that traders MUST have the same mindset as gamblers when it comes to accepting risk.

A gambler has predetermined risk even before the placement of a bet. Same must be for a trader.

A trader MUST have the same mindset as the house, that is, the house will run on the results of probability on a series of games. Your edge on the setup must deliver over 20 to 30 trades. Otherwise, back to the drawing board.

If you are all shaken out with one trade, then you need to adopt the gambling mindset asap. Accept that you do not need to predict the direction of price movement on the next trade. Just know that your edge will be profitable over 20 trades.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:24 pm #594
cornellj
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Forex=Gambling

Maybe for gamblers, but if you trade a small enough percentage of your money even a 500 pip run against you will do no harm, if you hedge the position. The specific move yesterday made me a lot of money, as did Katrina.

In the final analysis one thing is very certain in our market. Uncertainty. Plan for uncertainty, as if each trade will go against you and then develop a strategy to counter that.

If you look around you at the casino who are the players? If I look around me in Forex I see Banks and knowledgable professionals.

Happy trading.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:24 pm #595
comenow
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Of course trading is gambling. It is a game of chance. In a lot of instances the probability of winning is worse that the toss of a fair coin. People don’t want to admit they are gambling because they find gambling objectionable. This is rather pointless, because you can make money gambling if, over time,you have a way of putting the odds in your favour. Remember people like the turtles, who have been phenomenally successful at trading. What did this guys do. They played on breakouts of a fixed number of days. Sometimes they got stopped out 10 times in a row, and their rate of success was about 40%. The chance on a fair coin toss is better than that, namely 50%. (One wouldn’t take the latter bet because a pay off of more than 1:1 isn’t on offer). Trading is gambling;the point is whether you are good at it or not. If you are putting money on a game that involves chance, you are gambling (trading does involve a lot of chance). Accept it and find a way of winning at it.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:24 pm #596
cornellj
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Forex is not Gambling.

If I place a bet, the full amount bet is at risk on the fall of a coin, spin of a wheel, a turn of a card, the pull of a lever. The reward is generally much higher than in Forex.

If I take a Forex position I can limit my loss. The market moves up and down so what may be a loss initially may turn out to be a winner. I have a ratio of less than 2% of losses on trades. I have been in trades for up to 9 months. With hedging principles I trade without gambling my money.

You test all your trades, you stopped out, and see how many times they became positive later. The ratio is staggering.

Hence, Forex not Gambling.

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:25 pm #597
graemenash
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I’d disagree with most of that. Trading is gambling to a certain extent because you can never say with 100% accuracy what the market will do.

However once you define an “edge” which is profitable more often that it result in losses, trading becomes simply a matter of playing the probabilities when they’re in your favour – more like “calculated risk-taking” rather than simple coin-toss gambling.

This is a lesson I’m having to teach myself at the moment – over the last month or two I’ve been developing a system which seems to have a 70-80% strike rate but I’m struggling to make good pips with it simply because I haven’t trained myself to be emotionless and take very trade as soon as it appears. If I took every entry the system gave I’d come out ahead but at the moment I’m still second-guessing the signals and cherry-picking the trades which inevitably reduces the potential profit.

So I guess this little essay’s as much for myself as anyone else lol

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:25 pm #598
birdjaguar
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You seem to have eyes only in the back of your head, while you are still crying over spilled milk. You are the only one who is still writing about the past. What part of support and resistance did you not understand? I did not give you a trade for the past. I clearly gave you trades for the future at EUR/USD buying 1.1980 and selling 1.2180 while the price was at 1.2038. That doesn’t mean the trades will work, but I gave you these trades yesterday for the future. I won’t entertain anymore discussion from you about the past. You are clearly stuck on your losing trade regardless of what anyone says or you have a problem with reading comprehension. Either way, I won’t have anymore discussions with you about the past. We are working on winning on this forum. If you are stuck on losing, go find a losers forum… or start a thread called, “Who wants to be a loser.”

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Sep 1, 2017 at 1:26 pm #599
metal
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Ha ha ha. I may have eyes at the back of my head but you seem to speak from your back side. I can give you a number that might help you win multi-million dollars in an instant. Now rush to the nearest deli and buy yourself a lottery ticket all of whose digits add up to be 0.

People buying lottery tickets and betting on horses are at the deli and the OTB to win like yourself.

If you dont like to hear the truth then stay away from open discussions.

Perhaps you can find a fools’ forum or start a thread called, “Who wants to build castles in the air” or “Who likes day dreaming.”

Good Bye

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